Collecting Keys - Real Estate Investing Podcast

Real Estate Market Updates: Rates, Inventory and What Investors Do Now

Collecting Keys is hosted by three investors who buy and sell houses every week, so their market commentary is less about forecasts and more about what's showing up in their own deal flow. This guide pulls together years of those updates: why they've argued today isn't 2008, what really drives mortgage rates, how taxes and insurance quietly killed cash flow, and how their underwriting has changed since 2021.

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Is this 2008 all over again?

The hosts have answered this since 2022, and the answer has stayed consistent: no, not in the same mechanism. On EP 31, Mike and Dan compared inventory directly — Spokane had roughly 5,000 homes on the market before the 2008 crash versus about 182 at the time of that recording. They argued 2008 was a lending and mortgage-backed securities crisis, not a rate crisis, and pointed to Fed data showing home prices stayed flat or rose in most recessions.

On EP 239, Mike revisited the comparison after rewatching The Big Short. His framing: 2008 was driven by unqualified buyers with subprime adjustable mortgages, while the 2021 run-up was driven by affordability from rock-bottom rates letting marginal buyers squeeze in. Where he does see a parallel is property tax and insurance reassessments squeezing recent low-down-payment buyers, and transaction costs making more owners effectively underwater than headline stats suggest.

By EP 463, Dan's position was a slow bleed rather than a crash — no 15% national year-over-year drop, just inflated equity getting chipped away. Dylan expects modest declines near term but higher median prices in three to five years.

From: EP 31 · EP 239 · EP 331 · EP 463

What actually drives mortgage rates?

One of the most repeated corrections on the show is that mortgage rates are not set off the federal funds rate. On EP 80, Mike and Dan explained that banks price off where they project rates over roughly seven years. On EP 370, Mike and Dylan walked through why rates rose after the Fed's half-point cut in September 2024: mortgage pricing tracks the ten-year Treasury, and the cut was already priced in by bond traders.

Investor debt is its own animal. On EP 430 the hosts noted DSCR loans pricing in the mid-5s to mid-6s — below many agency investor loans — because they're held on lenders' books. By EP 481 and EP 486, DSCR pricing had gone flat even as consumer rates fell, with lenders widening the credit box instead of cutting price. On EP 492, Mike explained DSCR rates track inflation more than the ten-year, because the loans get securitized into bonds priced off a spread to inflation.

From: EP 80 · EP 370 · EP 432 · EP 493

Why has inventory stayed low and prices held up?

On EP 175 the hosts described low listed inventory as a homeowner stalemate rather than investors hoovering up houses: owners with sub-5% mortgages have nowhere cheaper to move, and at current rates residential yields don't attract big institutional money. EP 331 put existing-home months' supply back near pre-pandemic levels around 3.7 after bottoming near 1.6 in 2022.

Mike's mid-2023 prediction on EP 182 was flat prices, no crash, and continued rent increases — with starter homes and high-end homes still moving while the middle tier stalled. EP 410 gave Dan's supply-side view: builders restrict supply to protect margins, and low-rate owners don't sell until a life event forces it.

From: EP 175 · EP 182 · EP 322 · EP 410

Why did cash flow disappear, and did the hosts change their minds?

This is where the show's position shifted most. Early on they bought and refinanced rentals aggressively; by 2024 both Mike and Dan were selling. On EP 274 they walked through taxes jumping 30–100% and insurance doubling on properties they own — one property's taxes went from $2,800 to $4,000 and insurance from about $60 to $120 a month, roughly $2,000 a year of cash flow they couldn't recover with rent increases.

On EP 356, Mike explained selling down a portfolio that peaked at 54 units in 2022. His passive cash flow fell from roughly $10,000–$12,000 a month to about half, return on equity dropped to 2–3%, and one property's holding cost went up $700 a month. Dan's take on EP 272 is that cash flow should be a defensive metric funding maintenance, with real profit coming from debt paydown, tax benefits and appreciation.

They don't fully agree. On EP 437 Dan described keeping legacy cash-flowing assets and growing through private lending, while noting Mike was trying to go mostly to dry powder.

From: EP 274 · EP 356 · EP 272 · EP 437

Which markets are actually in trouble?

The hosts have become blunt that national numbers are useless. EP 434 described Florida, Austin and other pandemic boomtowns stacking inventory while Cincinnati and Washington properties still sold over asking in a weekend. On EP 440, Jacksonville brokerage owner Jon Brooks explained Florida's downturn as a simultaneous demand and supply shock — builders overbuilt for COVID-era migration while investors and second-home buyers, once roughly 35% of purchases, pulled back. He cited Jacksonville pending sales down 34% year over year in April and inventory at 6.4 months.

EP 462 flipped the map: Rust Belt and Northeast metros appreciating around 10% year over year with under three months of supply, while Miami sat on about ten months. On EP 441 the hosts argued you should judge a market by its employer mix — Spokane's largest employers are largely government-funded and insulated, while tech-concentrated markets are far more exposed.

From: EP 434 · EP 440 · EP 462 · EP 184

What happened to commercial and large multifamily?

The hosts have been negative on commercial and syndicated multifamily since 2023. On EP 149 they explained the core problem: the syndication model relied on selling to the next value-add buyer at an even tighter cap rate, and that buyer may not exist. EP 161 laid out the mechanics — syndicators who bought in 2020–2021 with floating or bridge debt facing three-year resets moving loans from around 3% to around 7%.

On EP 192, Aaron Amuchastegui gave the math plainly: cap rates moving from 5% to 7% cuts a property's value 30% even with perfect occupancy. EP 394 covered Freddie Mac multifamily delinquency rates surpassing 2008 levels, and explained the lag — reserves and capital calls kept operators solvent for years before distress showed in the data.

On EP 491 they discussed reports that Class B investors in one of Brandon Turner's Houston deals lost 100% of their capital, using it to explain that LP equity sits behind the lender and can go to zero even when owning the same asset yourself wouldn't.

From: EP 161 · EP 394 · EP 192 · EP 491

What did the NAR settlement actually change?

On EP 226 the hosts broke down the jury verdict against the National Association of Realtors and several brokerages, with damages discussed starting at $1.8B. Their read was that the case centered on both agents being paid a percentage of sale price, which incentivizes pushing prices up.

Dan's solo breakdown on EP 290 covered the $418 million settlement and the two rule changes: buyer-agent compensation can no longer be listed in the MLS, and buyer's agents need a signed agreement before showing a home. His prediction was that little would change short term, since nothing stops a buyer's agent from calling the listing agent to ask what's offered. He also flagged friction for FHA and VA buyers. EP 352 checked in once the rules took effect — Dylan said he was still offering a 3% co-op on all his flips.

From: EP 226 · EP 290 · EP 352 · EP 432

How do they change underwriting when the market shifts?

On EP 43, Mike walked through moving the flip offer formula from 75% of ARV minus repairs to 70%, and underwriting refinance rates of 5.5–7% instead of the roughly 4% assumed the prior year. EP 86 added the comping discipline: use the last 30–90 days plus pendings and days on market, not six-month historicals, and shave roughly 10% off ARV instead of pricing in appreciation.

EP 346 is their clearest statement on macro noise. The three argue national survey data is a poor guide for local operators, and suggest asking what you'd actually do differently in a recession — if the answer is "stop investing," you're looking for a reason not to act. Their defensive playbook: conservative ARVs, more reserves, avoid the upper tier, wholesale more. EP 429 adds the mistake Mike says they made themselves — reacting to a harder 2022 market by starting new businesses instead of doubling down on the one that worked.

From: EP 43 · EP 86 · EP 346 · EP 429

Frequently asked questions

Do the hosts think a housing crash is coming?

No. Across EP 31, EP 239 and EP 463 they've argued the 2008 mechanism — subprime adjustable lending — isn't present today, and that low inventory plus locked-in low fixed rates prevent a rapid collapse. Dan's current expectation is a slow bleed of inflated equity.

Why did mortgage rates go up after the Fed cut rates?

On EP 370, Mike and Dylan explained that mortgage rates track the ten-year Treasury, not the federal funds rate, and the September 2024 cut was already priced in by bond traders. EP 464 notes investor DSCR rates move separately again.

Why doesn't buy-and-hold cash flow work like it used to?

Rising property taxes and insurance, not purchase price, are the main culprits per EP 274 and EP 356. Mike's portfolio cash flow fell roughly in half and his return on equity dropped to 2–3%, which is why he began selling down a portfolio that peaked at 54 units.

Are all markets softening the same way?

No. EP 434 and EP 462 describe Florida and Austin stacking inventory while Cincinnati, Spokane and Rust Belt metros still move quickly. EP 441 suggests judging a market by its local employer mix rather than national headlines.

What did the NAR settlement change for investors?

Per EP 290 and EP 352, buyer-agent compensation can no longer be posted on the MLS and buyer's agents need a signed representation agreement before showings. The hosts expected little short-term change in actual commission levels.

All 140 episodes on market updates