Where is Housing Headed in this Changing Economy?
Hosted by Mike DeHaan, Dan Austin, Dylan Koch
In this episode
Mike and Dan debate whether the 2022 housing market is headed for a 2008-style crash, comparing today's rising mortgage rates and low inventory to conditions before the last downturn. They walk through Fed data on mortgage rates and home prices during past recessions, explain why 2008 was driven by lending practices and mortgage-backed securities rather than rates alone, and share where they think prices could soften.
Key takeaways
- Inventory is the big difference from 2008: Spokane had roughly 5,000 homes on the market before the crash versus about 182 at the time of recording, so a rapid price collapse is unlikely.
- Interest rates alone don't determine housing prices — the hosts point to Fed data showing home prices stayed flat or rose in most recessions, with 2008 the exception because it was a lending and mortgage-backed securities crisis.
- If prices correct, the hosts expect a 5-10% drop concentrated in luxury and high-end homes, while first-time-buyer and consumer-level housing stays in heavy demand.
- Owners of hard assets tend to outperform during inflation; the hosts argue real inflation has run higher than official CPI because big-ticket items like homes and cars rose far more than the basket of goods.
- Buy in markets with real population and economic growth where actual residents — not just investors — want to live, and be skeptical of niche business models that only pencil because of unusually high projected cash flow.
- Existing homeowners with large equity gains can roll proceeds into a more expensive house and still manage the payment; buyers doing 3% down at today's rates are the ones squeezed.
Show notes
The housing market is a complex system affected by various factors. If you don't understand these factors and their effects, you can't make informed choices and ensure financial security.
In this episode of Collecting Keys Podcast, we discuss the current housing market: its current state, predicting its future, and how to take advantage of it.
Here are some power takeaways from today’s conversation:The housing market is more than just inflation and appreciationHigh-end real estate may fluctuate in price but consumer-level real estate will always be in demandInvest in real estate in places with significant economic growthA recession won't affect housing, but it will spread the wealth gap furtherFind ways to elevate your income Episode Highlights:
[00:57] Real Estate Prices
Real estate prices are rising; people often cite the real estate market in 2008 due to the hiking prices today, but there were more houses on the market then compared to now.
There are few new constructions; there's land to build on, but it isn't developed. It all comes down to affordability since it dissipates so quickly.
[05:40] Factors in the Housing Market
Most people correlate interest rates with housing and mortgage. So they think that recession, inflation, etc., will cause problems in the housing market, but it doesn't guarantee that housing rates will tank.
Inventory and liquidity also affect housing markets. People are always looking to deploy their cash and find suitable investments, but the wealth gap is also a concern.
[13:45] Inflation and Economic Downturns
People who own assets tend to do better in inflationary periods. Goods cost the same, but assets rise in price. Inflation is higher than the government has quoted in recent years. House pricing will either remain stagnant or increase every recession.
[17:53] Why Get in on the Housing Market
Housing might experience minor, 5-10% price changes, but that only affects high-end real estate. Due to affordability, there will always be a massive demand for consumer-level real estate.
A recession is coming. It won't affect housing that much but will widen the wealth gap. The government will not address that gap, so find ways to generate income without relying on others.
Notable quotes from the Episode:
[13:53] “People who own assets tend to do better in inflationary periods.”
[21:59] “If you’re buying houses, you’re buying real estate in places that people are moving to, are growing economically, have a general demand within their market for people that are like moving there and not just investors, you’re probably not going to lose in those situations.”
[25:34] “Stop letting people strip value out of you for their own profits and go strip value out of something else for yourself.”
Resources Mentioned:
stlouisfed.org
collectingkeyspodcast.com
instantinvestorprogram.com
Frequently asked questions
Will the housing market crash like 2008?
The hosts say no. The 2008 crash was driven by faulty lending, five-year ARMs and mortgage-backed securities, plus huge inventory — conditions they don't see today, with inventory in their market a tiny fraction of 2008 levels.
What happens to home prices during a recession?
Looking at Fed data back to the 1990s (and similar charts to the 1970s), the hosts note prices either stayed flat or increased in every recession except 2008, largely because people stop moving rather than sell.
Where is a price drop most likely if one happens?
Mike expects any 5-10% correction to hit high-end and luxury real estate that is already unaffordable, while entry-level and first-time-buyer price ranges keep strong demand even at higher interest rates.
Market UpdatesRentals & Cash FlowFinding Off-Market Deals
Transcript
Read the full transcript
Mike DeHaan: [0:02] On Air Brands.
Speaker 2: [0:07] Welcome to the collecting keys real estate investing podcast with your host, Mike DeHaan and Dan Austin. From wins, losses, horror stories, and tactics for optimizing your business, Mike and Dan take a real uncensored deep dive into the ins and outs of running a full time real estate investment and wholesaling business.
Mike DeHaan: [0:30] Hey, guys. This is a special episode of the collecting keys podcast because it is the audio from one of our recent YouTube videos from the Mike and Dan show, which is kind of a YouTube side channel of the collecting keys podcast where we go more in the weeds on some sort of general topics regarding finance and the economy as a whole. In this episode, we discuss our opinions on if we think the real estate market's going to crash in 2020. In the YouTube version, we go into some metrics, some visual graphs, and things like that that you can check out. So we talk about them in the podcast, but if you wanna see the actual visuals, go over to YouTube and look for the Mike and Dan show with the Collecting Keys Network. Besides that, let us know what you think and enjoy the show. What's going on, guys? Welcome to a spontaneous episode of the Mike and Dan show for our YouTube channel. We were just talking about the, housing market situation as of 04/20/2022. I sure that's 04:20 today. Oh, is it? That... That's how far I'm removed from that culture. Didn't even
Dan Austin: [1:33] realize that right now. Man, gonna shut this off and go to the store real quick. We have a way better episode.
Mike DeHaan: [1:39] The greenery store. And, you know, I've just... So we've been... It's been coming up everywhere, obviously. Rates right now are getting up to, with... If you consider points. So so I was looking at a low... A mortgage rate this morning in our morning meeting. If you get a three year conventional loan and you have, you know, like, okay credit, like, seven to $7.40, it was... The basic quotes I was seeing were 5.6 to 5.7% after a two point buy down. Right?
Dan Austin: [2:09] Which is wild. Yeah. And and I was actually... After you talked about that this morning, looked at the the Fred website. For any of you that don't know what that is, that's actually a great website, for looking at any kind of financial data. It's actually super crazy. You can go down a route hole there, but they were at 55%. And you can see there's a dip from 2018 until now. In 2018, it was kind of in that ballpark area, and now they're back up to there. And, obviously, we're expecting to go a little bit higher still.
Mike DeHaan: [2:37] Yeah. I know.
Dan Austin: [2:37] A little bit? It's a lot. I don't know. But a little bit for sure.
Mike DeHaan: [2:41] Yeah. It's it's so it's so weird. And people are always comparing it to thousand eight, of course, because that's the one housing crash that everyone alive remembers.
Dan Austin: [2:50] It's LeBron James and Michael Jordan argument. Right? Right. The two most recent badasses. Like, nobody talks about Will Chamberlain as much anymore, but it's always LeBron versus
Mike DeHaan: [2:58] Yeah. Michael. I think it's a perfect example because people that don't know anything about basketball, they know who LeBron is Michael Jordan are.
Dan Austin: [3:04] And Right.
Mike DeHaan: [3:05] Most people, let's be honest, know literally nothing about real estate. Like, all they know is that that means that you buy a house or you sell a house, and that is the extent of their knowledge of real estate. They don't know how transaction works. They don't know how the greater economy affects. They don't know any of that. But, you know, people are always making that comparison and, you know, it... It's... I understand why people say that because of how the prices and things have gone up so much. But if you look at the big picture, like, I don't even know what to think because I was looking at this, this report today. Was it today? Maybe it was yesterday. And it was talking about, like, right now versus, 2,008 in Spokane, you know, where we live. And it was, back back then, there was, like, 5,000 houses on the market in Spokane when the market crashed. And so, like, there was a huge amount of, like, inventory. Yep. But, like, so much inventory for the prices to drop. And as of yesterday, there was 182 houses Which is wild. Like, that's nothing. Like, that... That's not even a comparison. Right? That's what? 2%? Yeah. 1%?
Dan Austin: [4:09] Yeah. And it's interesting because there is a lot of new builds going on in our market. And I think other markets are more indicative of, like, massive new construction, like, especially in the turn, what do they call it, build to rent markets where you see that. But, like, there's not. Like, when I remember being here in 2008, you could drive around and throw a stone, and you'd find a builder building a house. Mhmm. Even small time builders would have two or three projects going on at once. Yeah. And you and you don't
Mike DeHaan: [4:31] see that really at all right now. I mean, there... There's very specific areas that they're building, but it's hard to build stuff here.
Dan Austin: [4:37] Yeah. It is. It is. There's some more and more apartments coming in, but we have national homebuilders here, which we've never had in the past. Mhmm. And even so, there's not a lot of new construction going on, you know, citywide or or countywide. It's in, like, the pockets where it's like, oh, there's a piece of land. And we have a lot of land available. It's just not developed. You can't develop it yet. Yeah. Which is maybe a good thing right now.
Mike DeHaan: [4:59] Yeah. Maybe. I mean, the the big question just comes down to with the prices and with the, you know, the the interest rates being so high, the affordability dissipates so quickly. For... Primarily for new home buyers, though, this is one of the things that I think gets overlooked a lot is everyone's like, well, who's going to be buying houses when they're this expensive? I'm like, well, if you haven't bought a home yet, not you, unless you can afford, like, a much more expensive home. But people that are looking to sell their homes moving to something else, you know, they're gonna be able to sell their their house that's doubled in value over the last couple of years and walk away with a huge amount of equity, roll it into a more expensive house and still have a reasonable payment. You know, someone's moving from a house that they bought for $200 and, you know, just sold for $400. So you mean pulling out, let's say, 250 after the equity gain and their their money that they probably put down on it. They can use that and roll it into a $700,000 house Yep. And still have, you know, more expensive payment, but they're gonna have decent money to put down on it and keep it somewhat under control. Right. The peep... It's the piece... The people that are going around trying to do, like, 3% down loans that are just completely screwed.
Dan Austin: [6:13] Yes. I think so. And so I'm looking at the, Fred economic data, which is the Saint Louis Fed website. Can you...
Mike DeHaan: [6:22] Fred?... Share your screen.
Dan Austin: [6:24] Oh, gosh. Okay. Let's do it. Alright. So, yeah, I'm sharing here the Saint Louis Fed websites, the economic data. It's fred.saintlouisfed.org. Great website. Any financial data you want. I I learned this in my, economics class. I love this website. You can go down some rabbit holes. It's when you got your fancy pants MBA? Yes. That I. This is the one takeaway I got from that two year education besides all the friends I made. Yeah. Anyhow, so if you look at these gray bars, those are typically showing when there were economic downturns, recessions. Mhmm. This gray one over here is the 2008. So you look at it. Right before that in 2007, 6.63 was the thirty year fixed rate mortgage. And today, if you look over here, it says 5 percent. So if we go back over here to this graph, this is where we're at. And, you know, this is the eighties everybody talks about. And then we... They basically... The Fed chairman had to push us into recession because interest rates were so high. So they turned the federal funds rate really high. Right? And then that slowly brought down all the mortgage rates, and they were still high, right, in the nineties. And but... So what we're talking about is interest rates. Right? So we're still not where we were pre 2008 recession, but we're probably on
Mike DeHaan: [7:41] a path to get close to that.
Dan Austin: [7:43] Right? If if we're at 5% on... And this is aggregating all the data. Right? So you're looking at quotes. You know? This data is probably not as up to date as, like, getting a quote right now this minute, right, with points. But this is, I believe, what people are paying on average right now. And so I... With multiple fed rate hikes, this is gonna get to that. So we have higher interest rates pre to... Like, similar to going back to pre 2008 rates. And we have crazy ass appreciation, which we also had pre 2008. Right? But those are only two of the data points is what you're getting at, I think. Right?
Mike DeHaan: [8:23] Yeah. Well, I mean, something that people... I mean, one of the one of the challenges with dealing with the average person when it comes to talking about the economy in general, especially, you know, the media doesn't help with this either because they fixate on whatever is gonna get clicks. Right? Which for so many people is housing
Dan Austin: [8:43] Yes.
Mike DeHaan: [8:43] And, you know, real estate, especially because it's such a housing problem in The United States right now. And, you know, people, when they hear interest rate, they think of housing and mortgages because that's literally their only experience doing any... Like, their own personal life extension, anything revolving an interest rate in their entire life. So maybe a credit card, but that's consumer debt. Right? It's very different.
Dan Austin: [9:02] Yep.
Mike DeHaan: [9:03] And so people think that recession, inflation, all sort of stuff is just going to cause a major problem in the, housing market. Yep. But realistically, there's no guarantees at all. Even if we do go into a pretty heavy recession, that housing rates would be... Would would tank. Right. I mean, like, I think if anything, people are just gonna stay put, and housing markets are just gonna stay, like, exactly the same for Well, what you're saying period of time.
Dan Austin: [9:31] What you said too is, like, last time this happened, if you wanna do the Michael Jordan, LeBron James comparison was 5,000 houses on the market right before the crash. We have a 100. So how quickly are we gonna go from a 190 something houses to 5,000 or 7,000? Probably not overnight. Probably not really fast. And I think... I guess here... Here's what I'm gonna preface all this with is if you're a real estate talking head, most of them are saying, the housing market's not gonna crash. I'm going all in. It's like, yeah. That's your business. You want it. You you... If you talk like that, you you hope it's going to continue to go up the way it has because that's how you've built your wealth or whatever. And then there's some other talking heads that are... They're kinda like the inflation hawks and all these pope... People saying, it's gonna crash. It's gonna crash, and this is why it's gonna crash. Right?
Mike DeHaan: [10:20] It's it's because they wanna generate fear. You know? And and and, like, that's, like, people's biggest fear is that they just overpaid for the house, which honestly, you probably did. Let's be honest.
Dan Austin: [10:30] Yeah. And, you know, in in relation to a specific data point, you overpaid to... For it. Right? Yeah. And and not all of the data points, but there's certain things when you say, like, like, when I bought the... My primary residence a couple years ago, I felt like I overpaid for it. Today, I feel like a genius. Right? I know.
Mike DeHaan: [10:46] I know. Like, there's there...
Dan Austin: [10:48] I think there's macro data. And I bring that up just by saying, like, my true answer is, like, I don't know. I'm not gonna... I'm gonna keep investing in real estate. That's what I do. I I enjoy it. That's what my business is built on, and that's where my area of expertise is. So, I'm gonna continue to invest in I'm gonna continue to invest in it smartly, and as best as I can. But what what I'm saying though is, like, we have a couple other things that are outside of interest rates and appreciation. One being an inventory issue. Now there's arguments on both sides that we are not under built. But the main argument you see in the media is that we are under built nationwide. I think it was like $3,000,000... $33,000,000 homes or something like that Mhmm. Last time. So that's a big issue. And we do see that in in our home market. What you're saying
Mike DeHaan: [11:33] is any market right now. You know, like, there's only a single market out there that doesn't have the same issues.
Dan Austin: [11:39] Right. And and even the Midwest is appreciating beyond what anybody could have ever thought of. Right? But the other conversation you and I were having earlier today was about liquidity in us personally and then also the people we network with. Would you agree that there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, not because people are choosing to put it on the sidelines, because from my experience, they desperately wanna deploy it. Because there's been a huge cash infusion, which has caused inflation. And people have done pretty well for themselves the last decade. And guys like you and me, we have we have cash. We have liquid cash that we are actively always looking to deploy somewhere. And there's people much bigger than us that also have that same issue. And people we talk to are looking to deploy their cash, and they wanna find good investments. Yeah. That's why a lot of syndicators exist right now because people are willing to throw money at them.
Mike DeHaan: [12:29] At at anything. Right? And, yeah, I mean, you're completely right. The instant investor program is our twelve week group coaching program, which includes a self driven course and access to our private investor community. We will take you through the full process of how we find our leads, how we market, how we do our sales and follow-up, and how we determine the best strategy for every opportunity that comes our way. On top of that, you will also join a community of other like minded investors nationwide that are all marching towards the same goals, and you will have direct access to Dan and myself, so you can continue learning and growing with us as we continue to adapt and grow our business. So whether you're a new investor or already established, our systems can help take you to the next level. So if you think you might be a good fit, go to the instantinvestorprogram.com and schedule a call, and we can have you talking to motivated leads in as little as two weeks. And, I mean, that's the biggest thing is just that wealth gap that's growing because, you know, there's so many people that can't even afford to live right now. Then there's Right. Honestly, a lot of people like us who are sitting on a lot of cash or have generated a lot of wealth for themselves just because they, you know, made better decisions or they were able to get into a housing market, you know, over the past ten years. I I saw this stat the other day, and it was like there was 300 more, 300...
Dan Austin: [13:39] The 300... I don't know.
Mike DeHaan: [13:40] It 303,000 new millionaires in, The United States every single day in 2021. Wow. That's amazing. And and, you know, a big... A huge portion of that is because people's houses that they bought or their their, you know, two rental properties that they owned increased an incredible amount. And even in GoBundance that we're in, because, you know, a community that requires you to have a 7 figure net worth to be in it. Mean, we're slightly beneficiaries of this as well. The main reason we're able to hit that, especially last year when we did was because of properties we don't had appreciated so much. Now we've bought so many other properties at a discount where several multiples higher than that. Mhmm. But, I mean, there's a lot of people in there that literally the only reason they have a 7 figure net worth is because they bought, like, you know, three houses in Denver Right. In, like, 2009, 2010 for $250, and those houses are now each each worth $800,000 apiece.
Dan Austin: [14:29] Yeah. Well, and that speaks to the fact that people who own assets, regardless whether you think that that's... They deserve to be a a millionaire or not, people who own assets tend to do better in inflationary periods. Mhmm. And one thing... One argument I have is we're talking about inflation right now. It's 7%. I do think that inflation has been higher than has been quoted by the government the last
Mike DeHaan: [14:53] Oh, yeah.
Dan Austin: [14:53] Seven or eight years. Their CPI index, don't trust as much as, you know, their basket of goods is because, sure, an Apple cost the same in 2013 as it cost in 2017. But guess what? Your house didn't. Your car didn't. Right? The major expenses in our lives went up a lot, and that to me is indicative of inflation. Mhmm.
Mike DeHaan: [15:15] Yeah. I mean, it's it's always so tricky. You never even know who to trust or the stuff like that. Because, of course, the government, they... Like, especially with how the elections work and how everything's so emotionally driven and stuff these days, they're gonna say what people wanna hear to get votes. And since we have an election year every two years, they're gonna say what people need to be told in order to vote for them. Right. Especially all, like, all the middle people. And, I mean, I don't know. When it comes back to housing though... So I I found this this graph. It looks like it's also from Fred. If I just googled it and found it really quick because I've heard this before. So it's a little bit hard to see on this tiny screen. Can I zoom in on it? Yeah. There you go. So this is housing prices and the gray things are recessions going back to the nineties. I've seen other ones back to, seventies. But this is what housing prices did during recession. So, like, early nineties, they kinda stayed the same. This one, they continue to go up. The only one they dropped down was 2008 to there, and they've continued to climb. So whether this is gonna repeat again... And I've seen a similar graph like this that goes back to, like, the seventies.
Mike DeHaan: [16:16] And same thing, houses either stayed stagnant or they increased in every recession. Right. And they didn't necessarily dip at all. And I think a huge reason for that, you said, is just people not moving. And I think one of the biggest things that's going to change this year, like you mentioned before, people sitting on so much cash. I mean, a lot of the people that are doing okay, they're gonna be able to ride out whatever things come into effect. Because the reason this had a housing crash happened in 2008 was because there was so many people that overextended themselves and couldn't afford the situation they got themselves into mostly because of the faulty lending practices that were going on. Right.
Dan Austin: [16:57] Yeah. They're getting 80%. They're getting 80% loans with 20% down payment loans at like a 10% interest rate.
Mike DeHaan: [17:04] Right? They were doing like five year adjustable Five year five year arms. Yep.
Dan Austin: [17:08] The five year arm was the one that just got everybody to. And, you know, the thing about 2008 was that was a housing crisis. That was what drove the economic downturn. And so you... Like, the the early two thousand was that graph was the .com boom. You had people getting overextended in tech stocks that were way overvalued. And that's what we found, and it popped in, but housing wasn't affected necessarily. And so back to 2008, all the mortgage backed security issues, and that that was, in some senses, a market crash. But the reason it was crashed was because of the mortgage backed security issues. Right? And the interesting thing is now, we do have a mechanism to buy those back. The government does to help with that. Right? So they they like to buy basically shitty securities from these banks, and that's how they infuse cash into the economy. That did not exist pre 2008. That was a mechanism probably at two in the morning, the Fed team was sitting together and like, we have to save the world right now. What are we gonna do? And and I don't typically give the government props, but I give them props in that case because they created a mechanism to do that. Now what they've done is leverage that mechanism to the tee, and we printed, like, 40 percent of the, like, money in the history of The US all in during COVID. That that...
Dan Austin: [18:24] So now they're overextending that. And, of course, we're seeing the negative effects of that too with just just broadly with inflation and other issues. But, like, that was a pretty cool tool that they figured out to save everybody's asses.
Mike DeHaan: [18:36] Yeah. I mean... And that's always the challenges, especially with the government. I mean, you still, again, goes back to election stuff. I mean, it was in 2020. It was presidential election year. Like, they were all just trying to, a, make sure things didn't go completely sideways in a situation where I don't know if the world's ever frozen like that before. No. Clearly or not. Of course. I mean, you you think... Like, thinking back to that really weird period of time when it all started. I mean, I remember seeing videos of, like, coyotes in freaking New York City because there was no people on the street.
Dan Austin: [19:06] Right. Those were, like, actually rats the size of coyotes. Right. Probably New
Mike DeHaan: [19:11] York City. Like weird stuff. So so they needed to keep people's lights on. But, you know... And then as it, like, moved out of that, it got super political, and you don't really know what to believe anymore. But I don't know. I I think big picture though, what it comes back to is, you know, I think we will head to some kind of recession here very soon, but I do not think personally that housing is going to take a large dump, specifically not like we saw in 2008. I think there might be a slight correction. But, like, in a in a correction being... I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw, like, a five, maybe, like, 10% drop in prices. But even then, that will only be for, in my mind, like, high end real estate that's already kind of unaffordable. I think that the consumer level real estate and, like, first time home buyer price range, there's still just such a huge demand.
Dan Austin: [20:03] Yes.
Mike DeHaan: [20:03] Even with the high interest rates because it honestly is affordable by, you know, even at 7% interest to buy a $300,000 house for a Right. Working... Family with two incomes. Yep. And I don't think that that's gonna be an issue. I think it's like luxury real estate, million dollar homes, things on, like, the super high end of the price point in any market are the ones that are gonna take a pretty big dip.
Dan Austin: [20:26] Yep. Yeah. And and that's maybe. Right? I don't I don't know that that's the case. What I would
Mike DeHaan: [20:30] do people are probably also seeing a lot of cash. It's only gonna be if they try to move them. They're not gonna have very many buyers.
Dan Austin: [20:35] Well, and and everybody that owns a home right now is like a housing expert. Right? They might have... But they likely have more value in their home than they do the stock market. Right? So the Oh, yeah. They're the only stock market investing they do is maybe through their four zero one k or IRA or whatever. Mhmm. So what I would do is ask people, go look at other inflated assets.
Mike DeHaan: [20:56] Yeah. Do you think any of
Dan Austin: [20:57] the FANG stocks, you know, are are are inflated right now? Because a lot of people say, not a FANG stock, but like Tesla? Tesla's super inflated. Yeah. I would argue that they're not because I think what they're doing is bigger than making cars, but there is a... You know, there's still fun.
Mike DeHaan: [21:12] In the entire car industry, industry, bro. Bro.
Dan Austin: [21:14] Right. But if you look... I don't wanna go down this test because I'm not an Elon fanboy, kind of am. But, like, at the same time, what are they doing? They've completely revolutionized the car industry. They took things that were mechanical and turned them into software. Yeah. And the data that they're getting from those cars out there is so much more valuable than the cars themselves. So I think long term, I'm long on Tesla. Yeah. They might see a dip or whatever. And maybe they are overinflated inflated in today's market, but there are also other equities where people couldn't couldn't lose. I mean, if you invested in Apple, you couldn't lose. Right? And it's just gone up and up and up and up and all that sort of stuff. But there's also a ton of startups, out there. And if you listen to, like, the I I like listening to All In podcast, they're big on startups and investing in those private companies before they go public. There's a lot of dudes out there. Well, a lot of startups that were built... Burning billions of dollars because they had these crazy overinflated valuations, and their burn rates were massive. And they're... Now they don't exist anymore Mhmm. Because they're overinflated. And there's billions of dollars out of the economy getting pumped into those because everybody wants to be on that next startup wagon right before the value... Right before they go public.
Dan Austin: [22:24] They get the sweet spot in the valuation, and then they go public, and then they sell out, and they make a shit ton of money. Mhmm. Well, that didn't happen for a lot of those companies.
Mike DeHaan: [22:32] Yeah. One, I think I think what you said there can connect really well to real estate as well because talking about the larger vision of the companies and stocks, the ones that are gonna keep doing well. I mean, same can be said for real estate. Right? If you're buying houses, you're buying real estate in places that people are moving to, are growing economically, you know, have a general demand within their market for people that are, like, moving there, right, and not just investors, you're probably not gonna lose in those situations. You know, it's when... If you're buying, like, the really crappy properties, you're buying in, quote, unquote, cash flow states that, you know, no one's actually going there and there's just the remaining people that haven't left yet, haven't figured out that they can venture outside of the greenfields that they live in. Those are the people that are gonna get bit. Right.
Dan Austin: [23:19] You know? And... Or you're buying you're buying at market prices because you have some niche business model where you're like, I'm getting $6,000 a month in cash flow instead of the typical 1,500, but it's so niche and one little blow of the wind can take that away from you, now you have an upside down asset that is not cash flowing and you're losing a thousand dollars a month on.
Mike DeHaan: [23:39] Yes. That's also super valid. If you're doing, yeah, anything that's way outside the norm or super unique, that's another conversation we can have in different video about why do that. Is a bunch of BS. Right. But
Dan Austin: [23:50] Not just Airbnb, other models because some guys do great with that. Some guys and gals do great with that. But it's that idea of I don't care what I pay for the asset because it's gonna cash flow great.
Mike DeHaan: [23:59] Yeah. Right. Yeah. So ultimately, I guess looking at the the bigger picture, back to housing stuff with the recessionary things, I... You know, recession's definitely coming. I don't think that it'll affect housing that much. What I do think that it will do, I actually think the the basing would be just a ton of societal pressures because the haves and the have nots are gonna be further spread apart than ever before. But, you know, I think that if you're on the lower spectrum of that, you're in the, you know, the have not phase right now. There's nothing wrong with that. But I think very realistically, it's gonna be more challenging to get up into those higher, income brackets and the higher wealth brackets in the very near future. Yes. It's not gonna be impossible, but you're gonna have to work a lot harder for it. And, you know, the people that are at the top, honestly, they're probably gonna be able to stay there okay assuming that they're in hard assets. Because, mean, honestly, they hold a lot of the cards right now. Yep. And there's gonna be less opportunity for people to build wealth for themselves and their families. And what that looks like over the long term, I don't know. You know, there's there's a lot to be said about when that happens in societies, about how that affects the culture and how that affects, you know, society as a whole. But Mhmm. You know, I don't think there would be, like, regulation around it because I hate to break it to you, but all your politicians are rich fucking assholes.
Mike DeHaan: [25:24] Yeah. So And they really don't care about you. So They
Dan Austin: [25:27] have they have literally laws that allow them to be inside insider traders, which you and I, it would be able to do
Mike DeHaan: [25:32] that. Right. Yes. So, you know, I think the biggest piece of advice I would give for people is find ways to generate as much of your own money as you can without relying on other people, without relying on other businesses. Even if you have a job that you like, that's great. Just make sure that you have ways to elevate your income outside of that because that's gonna be so important if you wanna go to the next level. Otherwise, you know, the elite are gonna kinda keep holding all the cards, you know, and as the the smart money keeps investing billions and billions of dollars into houses, the prices aren't gonna go anywhere until they say so, and they're just gonna keep renting to you at higher and higher prices.
Dan Austin: [26:14] Mhmm.
Mike DeHaan: [26:14] So, you know, do what you can to sort of get out of that zone.
Dan Austin: [26:17] Yep. Stop letting people strip value out of you for their own profits and go strip value out of something else for yourself. Mhmm.
Mike DeHaan: [26:23] Exactly. And and just do anything you can to have a skill set that's valuable to other people and see if you can get some of those those higher higher income individuals to pay you for it. That's what
Dan Austin: [26:34] you gotta do.
Mike DeHaan: [26:34] So... Anyway, I'm not worried about housing. The whole thing is very unique. And I will say, though, as a millennial, I'm looking forward to a time where we can, like, stop having, like, things for the record for, like, the history books, like, every three years.
Dan Austin: [26:56] I know. Right? Holy smokes. You're absolutely right. Our whole life.
Mike DeHaan: [26:59] I don't I don't know if it's been like that forever, but I feel like every three years, you know, it's just like, this is the craziest thing that hasn't happened yet. How do we respond? It's like, I don't know. So, cool. Alright. Well, thanks, everybody. That's our thoughts on housing. And if you do find yourself in a situation where you overpaid for a house and you need get
Dan Austin: [27:20] out of it, give us a call.
Mike DeHaan: [27:21] We'll buy it.
Dan Austin: [27:22] We'll buy it. Yes.
Mike DeHaan: [27:23] So... Alright.
Dan Austin: [27:24] Thanks. See you guys.
Speaker 2: [27:26] Thanks for listening. Please leave us a review on iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts, and check us out at collectingkeyspodcast.com for tips and guides on starting your own real estate investment and wholesaling business.
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