What Are the Real Reasons Bitcoin Crashed?

Mike DeHaan: [0:00] Honestly, that's a big reason I started buying a lot of Bitcoin over the last six months is because I wanna have a way to access some form of money that isn't tied to The US system.

Dan Austin: [0:13] Hey. Can I ask you a question as we open the show? Yeah. This is a thought provoking question. Six inches. I asked thank you. I figured that. So I actually asked my wife this at dinner last night because

Mike DeHaan: [0:25] It says the answer was not six inches. It was four inches.

Dan Austin: [0:28] Yeah. It was it was just enough.

Mike DeHaan: [0:32] We're gonna start right after the intro.

Dan Austin: [0:33] I like that intro. Oh, god.

Mike DeHaan: [0:37] What's going on, guys? Welcome to Collecting Keys. I'm your host, Mike DeHaan here with Dan Austin and Dylan Cook. And that's way bigger than six inches. Get ready. Yeah. Zach, it's funny. I was listening to a, a podcast the other day. It's on the six inches topic. And they, like, made a joke about, like, what percentage of men do you think have measured their dicks? And, you know, is there, like, a 60%, 70%? Like, on the show, there's, like, five guys. And of them, three out of five admitted that they had. K?

Dan Austin: [1:08] So the other two just hadn't.

Mike DeHaan: [1:10] Yeah. The answer are liars. But They're prudes. Then they got into the question of, like, what is the correct tool to do that? And they said, like, a ruler or do you use, like, a one of these, like a like a measuring tape?

Dan Austin: [1:23] Ruler. You it's funny. You have a tape measure at your desk too. What are we? Why are we such weirdos?

Mike DeHaan: [1:27] Of course. We're real estate. We're real estate guys. You know? And that's because have a bunch of photos appear that I was measuring out. And one of them made the the the point of, why would you ever put this near anything to that? Because if that happens, that's kinda frightening.

Dan Austin: [1:38] Like, anyway If it starts snapping close,

Mike DeHaan: [1:40] that that's a risky maneuver.

Dan Austin: [1:42] Snapping, dude.

Mike DeHaan: [1:43] And I think he's onto something. I've been sitting here playing with this, thinking about that. And I'm like, you know, that is kinda scary.

Dan Austin: [1:48] That is dangerous. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [1:49] But anyways, so your thought provoking question that you wanted to start with. So

Dan Austin: [1:55] did it have anything to do with length or group? It was, do you think that somewhat of a chicken and egg question. Like, do you think that people are attracted to doing Epstein level stuff because they're rich and powerful? Or do you think they're rich and powerful because they're attracted to doing Epstein stuff?

Mike DeHaan: [2:12] This is actually a really fascinating question because I've been thinking about this as well is why does there seem to be, like, a correlation here of there's all these ultra high profile people? Because also it's not like like a lot of the people that are involved, it's not like just billionaires. Right? Because there's a lot of billionaires too that no one even has heard of before.

Dan Austin: [2:34] Rough.

Mike DeHaan: [2:34] Or He's like the eighth richest person in the world. Couldn't fucking tell you. Don't care.

Dan Austin: [2:38] Not

Mike DeHaan: [2:38] me. But it's like there's, like, celebrities. You know? It's like the Bill Gates. It's like the big names. There's all the stuff about, like, JK Rowling. Like, her, like, yacht records are all being, like, wiped off of everything because she had obviously been doing shit around there. You know? There's, like, all these people that are high profile. And so the question is, were they targeted because they were high profile to basically be, like, a part of this? But then also, how, like, do they know? Like, how does that initial interaction start? Do they, like, seek it out? Do they, like, go to the island for, a rich person partying? It's like, hey. You like kids? Like, we got this back here. What is the situation? And I don't know what came first. Chicken or egg. It is very weird to me.

Dan Austin: [3:15] So here's my thing is I can go I can understand how these and not that I would do this, but how they go from I'm not a rapist or pedophile or maybe they're not even I don't even wanna say rapist or pedophile. Maybe there's just freaky parties, like, at Diddy's house. I don't know. Like, there's obviously a a range of things happening in Epstein's Island, and a good chunk of it is rape and, you know, sex trapping. But I so I can understand how somebody, like, eases into it. Maybe it's like, hey. Come on to my house in in New York, and we're gonna have a party. And then slowly, you know, you're doing cocaine, and next thing you know, you're, you know, whatever. But, like, the desire to do that, like, where does that desire come from? Is it desired because you are rich and powerful and you're like, I can do whatever I want? Or are you rich and powerful because you have untapped desires?

Mike DeHaan: [4:02] Well, I wouldn't say it's untapped desires. I would say that your ethics are questionable enough that you're willing to do shady things that can expedite your growth. Right? Like

Dan Austin: [4:12] So you have to do that to be like Elon

Mike DeHaan: [4:15] I don't think you have to. Or Donald Trump.

Dan Austin: [4:17] And the the reason why I asked this question is because if it's wealth and power that causes it, then that means everybody has some level of, like, potential to do that.

Mike DeHaan: [4:27] No. Because, like, it's not like a one for one relationship. It's still gonna be a percentage of people. So, like but, what what is that percentage within that? So maybe 60%? Within, like, that community, like, of, like, the ultra wealthy versus, like, the rest of the world. Like, is it one zero one? I don't know.

Dan Austin: [4:44] Well, so out of, the last several presidents, it's, like, two thirds of them. Clinton and Trump are at least on there.

Mike DeHaan: [4:49] Well, we've only had, like, four, what, four presidents in the last twenty five years. Right? What we had Yeah.

Dan Austin: [4:55] That's true. Yeah. But I'm just saying, you know

Mike DeHaan: [4:56] We've had Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden, Trump. Yeah. We had five. So, I mean, I don't know, man.

Dan Austin: [5:03] The bushes are clean, man. They're clean. They're just warmongers.

Mike DeHaan: [5:06] Well, also too, like, if you look at, like, the the occupations that a lot of them had as well, you know, a lot of politicians in general, I think, are generally very narcissistic people. Dirtbag losers?

Dan Austin: [5:18] Oh, that's that's what I thought.

Mike DeHaan: [5:19] So, like, you know, is there, like, a personality thing there? I don't know, man. Like but it is weird. It's a very interesting thing to me. So if you look at general appearance of humans, on average, rich people are better looking. Not all the time, but it's very, very common for people with higher net worths, higher income jobs like that are better looking people. And so there's always the art So they like the rape? Well, no. No. This is getting away from the rape thing entirely. So it it brings up, like, the similar question of, like, are they more successful in life because it was easier for them to get there because they were more attractive, they had more opportunities, they had more social connection, those kind of things? Or is it because they have more time to take care of themselves, they have the ability to have more resources to eat better, go to the gym.

Dan Austin: [6:06] I mean, money definitely makes you better looking.

Mike DeHaan: [6:07] It can, for sure.

Dan Austin: [6:08] But you can get more money if you are better looking too. So it's like a yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [6:12] Yeah. You know? So it's like like what came for I don't know. It is a weird thing, but I've also been thinking about this same sort of, like, correlation. I don't know.

Dan Austin: [6:19] Okay. So then is Jeffrey Epstein's Satoshi Dylan?

Dylan Koch: [6:26] I don't. I don't. I think that was pretty well put to bed about the second that came out. How was

Mike DeHaan: [6:31] that put to bed? No. I I think he threw Satoshi into the freaking Gulf Of America.

Dylan Koch: [6:36] Into the Gulf Of America. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [6:38] Chopped him up. After he made Bitcoin for Epstein, he chopped him up, put him in the Gulf Of America.

Dan Austin: [6:42] Well, here's my belief when when it comes to the founding of Bitcoin. I do not believe one single human built that and then just kept it to the you know, he's probably dead if he did, but, like, took it to the grave.

Dylan Koch: [6:54] I mean, I would agree that he's either dead or lost his keys to the original coins. Because, I mean, I don't know any level of human that could see that kind of wealth and then not tap into it.

Dan Austin: [7:03] But also not talk about it.

Mike DeHaan: [7:04] He was on that Malaysian Airlines flight, dude. That's how a Malaysian Airlines flight went down in, like, 2016. Twenty twenties. Yeah. 2016.

Dan Austin: [7:10] It just doesn't seem like don't know. It's just really hard to believe in a in a world where, like, altruism is, like, hard to come by that somebody would do that completely altruistically.

Dylan Koch: [7:20] Well, one of the leading, like, theories is Hal Finney. He was the one that said, like he was the first one that the Satoshi had a like, ran the ran the Bitcoin protocol outside of Satoshi's own laptop. And he died of, I think, of ALS, like, in 2013, 2014. And there were theories that he might have been Satoshi, but he is dead now. Like, So, we'll never know.

Dan Austin: [7:42] Dang. Okay. So you're in the belief that it was likely an individual, not a government or a group of government backed people.

Dylan Koch: [7:51] Yeah. If I had to put a gun to my head, I would say that it was more of a of a person versus an entity. And there's actually a book called The Book of Satoshi that dives into, like, all this stuff at the beginning that they had on these, they were Reddit posts, but very similar.

Dan Austin: [8:06] I can see where Mike's Mike's fucking rearing up like a cobra right now.

Mike DeHaan: [8:09] The book of.

Dan Austin: [8:11] It's actually it sits next to it sits next to the the King James Bible.

Dylan Koch: [8:14] Yeah. It sounds familiar to us.

Mike DeHaan: [8:15] Yeah. Right? I'm I'm just thinking of it is are the creators of South Park gonna do a, on stage version of this to go along with their Book of Mormon? Right.

Dylan Koch: [8:23] They might. But, anyways, they, like, studied, like, even his language, like, to see and, like, every time he was coding, it's all, like, so, like, what time zone would he have been in and all this kind of stuff. And and it kinda lines up with someone who would have been in Europe at the time, spoke with, like, European or Australian, like, nuances to the to the type of So I don't know. I would think it would be American or a government.

Mike DeHaan: [8:45] Oh, yeah. European nuance. He added, like, extra vowels to things. Like, color has a u in it for some fucking reason. Not really

Dylan Koch: [8:51] u. Right. Right.

Dan Austin: [8:52] We think

Mike DeHaan: [8:53] they're fancy. Right? So, yeah, know. There's a lot of like weird stuff that's like tying together with him. I mean, if you if you think about that whole thing that was going on, it makes sense that he would have been into Bitcoin because he was probably trying to figure out how to receive funds in a completely

Dylan Koch: [9:09] Anonymous fashion?

Mike DeHaan: [9:10] Yeah. Anonymous way for the children that he was trafficking.

Dylan Koch: [9:13] Which is funny because there's there's emails that pretty much said, like, he had these meetings with these early developers. I think Gavin was one of the early ones. And he basically, from what I've seen, had a consensus like, oh, this isn't as anonymous as we thought, so I can't really use it. Somebody used JPMorgan instead because they can just pay my fine. Fascinating.

Mike DeHaan: [9:32] I don't know. So how do you feel about everything going on, Dylan? I know you had to sell your good microphones while you sound like shit today so that you could pay for your Bitcoin losses.

Dylan Koch: [9:42] Mhmm. Well, it's funny. I don't know if you talked about this publicly on the podcast. It's obviously, like, I'm down a lot from on a paper standpoint. But we were talking about just like investing and I was able to take out some Bitcoin backed loans and borrow it, I think like 6% of the time and lend these funds out to other real estate investors at hopefully, you know, twelve and two and make the spread between those those numbers. And when I did it, was like, okay. This is very low LTV. Like, I should be like, even if we have a 50% correction, I should be fine. And then the price started to go down. I have had to add, you know, more collateral to the loan, so I didn't get liquidated. And the first time I got that email

Dan Austin: [10:19] Even if we have a 50% correction.

Dylan Koch: [10:21] Yeah. That's crazy. The first time I got that email, it says like, hey. Your loan's at list of liquidation. I was like, oh, fuck. Because if it goes below that threshold, I mean, they just yank it. Like, there's no, like, please don't do that. Like, it's just gone.

Mike DeHaan: [10:32] Do you think that that might have caused such a rapid drop as to I would imagine there was a lot of people that had leverage on their portfolios. And so as it was coming down Yes. I can't imagine there weren't a huge amount of forced liquidations that were happening.

Dan Austin: [10:48] Most people aren't like you, Dylan. Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [10:49] A 100%. And there's a lot of data to support that thesis. And even with, like, iBit, a lot of I don't know exactly how this works, but they're doing, like, iBit, which is the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, a bunch of, like, call option strategies. But the problem is, like, once you start if you're naked short with, like, put options and stuff, you don't have a hedge and it starts going down. It just it's a cascade until you run out of money.

Mike DeHaan: [11:10] It just executes them.

Dylan Koch: [11:11] Yeah. Yeah. Right. And I I do think there is a lot of that that happened over the IPO days, which, like, we found it seems like seemingly a floor around 65, 70 at this point. We touched 60, I think.

Mike DeHaan: [11:21] Yeah. It's not bounced super hard after that. Must have been more a bunch of, like, buys were placed there.

Dylan Koch: [11:26] The two hundred week moving average, which it's only dipped below two or three times in its history, is, 60,000.

Mike DeHaan: [11:32] Say that again?

Dylan Koch: [11:32] The two hundred week moving average of Bitcoin is around 60 k right now, and it's only ever dipped below that, like, two or three times in its entire history. So, I mean, if you if you were to fall through that support or, I guess, yeah, support, then you would have been like, oh, like, this time might really be different.

Dan Austin: [11:48] But So Michael Berry, what's what's the news with him?

Dylan Koch: [11:50] Well, I mean, he's called that it's been a financialized so there's a lot of speculation now that the whole Bitcoin thesis is, there's only 21,000,000. Right? Like, there's a fixed supply. But he's saying that if you get all of these financial institutions involved, that they're gonna do these financial derivatives on top of it, whether that be call options, derivatives, like, all these financial products that basically create synthetic Bitcoin. Right? And so, like, there's not really a cap supply, but when you when you try to synthetically modify an asset that does have a fixed because, you know, if I hold this in cold storage, you can't take that away from me. But someone on the IBEX exchange, like, they can all get liquidated at any moment's notice. So I do think there was this pent up leverage in the system, especially after, like, the liberation day, like, and, like, all the government was saying, we're the pro crypto government. We're gonna have a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The four year cycle, everyone still believed in that we were supposed to peak in the in q three or q four of of twenty twenty five. So, like, I think everyone was anticipating that is fact. And then so they levered to the gills thinking, like, oh, I'm gonna make so much money when that didn't come to happen. And we just the four kind of fell out from underneath them.

Mike DeHaan: [12:57] I mean, at the end of the day, everything that's like a with the rate of information exchange and how easy it is to transact, not just crypto and Bitcoin, but, like, pretty much every stock and security and stuff like Robinhood and everything else now. It's all just gambling. You know? Because, like, basically, what you're doing is you're gonna move from one hot table to the next. So Bitcoin's going down, but gold's going up. So everyone's gonna be selling all that shit and going over to gold futures. Right? And then, oh, shit. Palantir is on, like, fucking doing something, so I'm gonna Yeah. Take all my money out of gold and go over there now. Like

Dylan Koch: [13:31] There was a Reddit post, Mike, about someone who basically liquidated everything at into silver, at, like, the silver top, It went down, like, 30 or 40% after he went all in, lost everything.

Mike DeHaan: [13:40] Totally, dude. I mean, that that's like somebody that bet makes a sure win on the, you know, freaking football game, and then there's an upset. Right? Like, it's the same sort of mentality on things. People just make dumb decisions.

Dylan Koch: [13:50] And, obviously, Bitcoin trades twenty four seven, three sixty five. It's it's not open to market. So, like, people if there's a rush to liquidity, that's one of the first things to get tapped. Because it's still a big market. I mean, it sounded like 1.2 or 3,000,000,000,000 now. It was, like, 2,000,000,000,000 at one point, but it's still a relatively decent market size for for people to have some money. But, like, precious metals, like gold and silver had bigger volatility than Bitcoin up until yesterday.

Dan Austin: [14:13] Yeah. Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [14:14] And that's trillions of dollars.

Mike DeHaan: [14:15] Yeah. It's not which is weird.

Dan Austin: [14:16] Do you think that it's an issue when, like, companies are holding this on their balance sheet, or do you think it's better for the actual crypto world?

Dylan Koch: [14:24] So two things. I would say the people that just created Bitcoin treasury companies, that all they do is buy Bitcoin and didn't have an underlying business to support the cash flows, I think that's pretty dumb. Because then you're just banking our appreciation if that doesn't come through your app. But I do think if you are a profitable company and instead of putting treasuries on your balance sheet or whatever, you wanna take a small allocation, put that into Bitcoin, and you have a time long time horizon, and I mean by that four to five plus years, I think that's a smart strategy. I wouldn't do something like that.

Dan Austin: [14:51] But the problem is that I don't think any single publicly traded company has a time horizon beyond three months.

Dylan Koch: [14:56] Yeah. Quarterly by EPS. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [14:57] I know. It's all quarterly. And I

Dan Austin: [14:59] bring this up because I was reading an article about this, and they were just talking about how some of, like, the liquidity because it is highly liquid. And some of these companies that wanted to have a strategic reserve are maybe going to get forced to sell it based on I don't know if it was their creditors or their board or whoever would say, you need to get that off your balance sheet because, yeah, you had 5,000,000,000 in it, and now it's worth 2,500,000,000. We don't wanna take the risk of that 2,500,000,000 being worth x amount for whatever reason because then they don't basically have liquidity that they may need. And so to me, that sounded like, oh, I guess that that could be the downside. Like, it looks like an upside because it's driving up demand. But then if it's people are running to liquidity and selling it, then it you know, the the spiral is, like, calling the test fire or whatever happens.

Dylan Koch: [15:41] Yeah. It kinda goes both ways. Right? It can it can help on the way up. It can also go on the way down. So but, like, to Mike's point, like, there's a lot of retail traders that trade in and out of things. But right now, in, like, today's environment, there is a perpetual search for yield. And, like, if you look at stocks, PE ratios are and CAPE ratios are they're, like, at 30 to 40, which is historically in the top 10%. We only got that during, like, the .com stuff. So meaning that if you look at the forward projections of the S and P 500 in the next ten years, it's, like, negative one to 1%. So then you look at bonds. Okay. Bonds are you know, they're okay, but they aren't really the best asset in the world right now. And everyone's looking where to place their money with valuations. You know, real estate's pretty still pretty high. Stocks are still pretty high. So people don't know where to put their money. And that's like, I still think that if you look at the Bitcoin thesis specifically, what annoys me are these people that come out and say there is no, like, use case to it, which I just don't think is true.

Dan Austin: [16:35] And I used to be the believer. Like, that was my whole thing. It's like, don't understand what you do with Bitcoin. Right? And since, you know, talking to you at length, I've changed my mind on that because it doesn't actually have to have a physical use. Right?

Dylan Koch: [16:47] Correct. Right. And then, know, increasing purchasing power and being able to exchange value across mediums without someone else's permission, regardless of where you are in the world, is a use case.

Dan Austin: [16:56] That's a piece of paper is.

Dylan Koch: [16:57] Yeah. And so I don't know. I I see people, like, dunking on it and having their heyday, but if I'm looking at it, even I'm a drone, like, I am a net buyer at these prices. Like, I I am.

Dan Austin: [17:06] So are you are you buying right now?

Dylan Koch: [17:08] So funny story is I was almost out of, like, dry powder because I was, you know, deploying a lot of it. I have a a building that I own here in Cincinnati that we are we just got the appraisal back today, and we're gonna refinance it. So I will be getting a hefty amount of money next week that a a large proportion of that will probably be deployed into spot BTC.

Dan Austin: [17:28] Going back. Going to Bitcoin. To buy actual more more Bitcoins or to trade off your leverage?

Dylan Koch: [17:32] To buy actual more Bitcoin.

Mike DeHaan: [17:34] Yeah. I kept buying on the way down. You know, I bought not quite down at the sixties. I bought in, like, the low sixties. Trying to see

Dan Austin: [17:40] what my last buy was.

Mike DeHaan: [17:42] Yeah. It's it's also, like, not my first rodeo because we've been you know, I was really into the crypto stuff back in 2017. I was when Dan and I worked in the same engineering office, I was, like, kinda the crypto guy there. Like, some people will come and, like, ask me questions

Dan Austin: [17:55] about Mike was. He got me into crypto. What year was that? What'd you say? That was, like, '20 yeah. We were we were such early.

Mike DeHaan: [18:00] It was 2017.

Dan Austin: [18:02] We're so early. You were way early.

Mike DeHaan: [18:03] The problem is is, like, you know, we we did what a lot of the doors did back then as you got introduced to it through, like, Bitcoin or Ethereum, which were, you know, was kind of newer on the scene back then. And then you got really involved into all these different, like, altcoins and shit. So it got, like, super dispersed across all these things that were just trash. And then it was, like, a whole, I don't see movement. There was this whole trend of, like, these pump and dumps where these people would create these fake coins. They'd get all these idiots to go and, like, buy it, and it would, like, just shoot up and then it would crash down. And there was, like, these different exchanges that you could buy stuff on that would just, like, collapse, And, like, these dudes would, like, just steal all this money. It was freaking Wild West shit. So Binance,

Dan Austin: [18:42] I I saw an article that they may be that there might be and you might know about this, Dylan. It's like they may have some liquidity issues because of the way that they're acting and doing things that Binance may fail.

Dylan Koch: [18:52] Yeah. I mean, they they were the the biggest seller yesterday by a lot.

Mike DeHaan: [18:57] Yeah. Oh, yeah. But, yeah, there was so many, like, janky ones. But I remember back in January, because it was actually right around when your daughter was born, Dan. Because I remember you were, like, in the delivery room or, like, at the hospital. And I was, like, texting. I like, are you seeing this shit right now? And you're like, bro, my daughter's being dead. And I'm like I'm like, today is bad. I lost, like, so much money because it was at, like, 20,000 Bitcoin was. And shit, like, it dropped so much that month. I wanna I'm actually curious what number it was.

Dylan Koch: [19:25] I think it went to, like, three or four at one point because I I was involved too.

Mike DeHaan: [19:29] I'm pretty sure it was, like, three or four by, like, the next month. But, like, in that one day, it dropped down to, like, nine. It was crazy. You know? That was kinda what it was. But the thing too is back in the market cap was pretty small, and it stayed down in, that three or four point for years Yeah. Until a 2020, 2020 I guess 2021 started taking off again. And so that can happen. By September 2018, it had collapsed 80%.

Dylan Koch: [19:52] And, I mean, if you look at if you hold Bitcoin for longer term time horizon, the the gains come in a very short duration of of window. I can't tell you the exact number.

Mike DeHaan: [20:02] That's like stocks too.

Dylan Koch: [20:03] It is. It is very much like stocks.

Mike DeHaan: [20:05] Yeah. I forget what the statistic is. I've heard this repeated a bunch of times where they basically say that if you miss, like, the seven biggest days in, like, a year, you pretty much, like, don't make any gains for the year. Yeah. You know? Because like essentially every single year, all the stock games come in such a short period of time. But also at that same point, that's why there's always this argument against like timing the market because technically, mathematically, your greatest gains are going to come if you just basically go all in instead of dollar cost averaging over any period of time because of the compound interest you can get. Unless you go all in when things were at an all time high, then you're kind of

Dan Austin: [20:40] Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [20:41] Because, like, there's people that lost their ass in 2008. It didn't start getting their, like, get back in the green until, like, almost 2020. It took, like, ten years.

Dylan Koch: [20:50] Well, if you look some of the Japan's equivalent of the S and P 500, it's the Nikkei, I think, is what it's called. In the 2000, they were at such an evaluation. It took until last year, 2025, that they broke even from their highs in 2020. That's twenty five years

Mike DeHaan: [21:04] Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [21:05] Of breakeven. So imagine if you were 40 years old when that happened. It took you till 65 to breakeven. Like, there is going to be times where, like, I think there's more uncertainty now in the investing world than there has been a long time. I've said this before. I don't think the standard 60 portfolio is gonna serve the general population well over the next twenty to thirty. I just don't.

Mike DeHaan: [21:25] No. It's definitely not. So I don't really think anything is, honestly. Because so much is gonna change at a more and more rapid pace. And I think that's the biggest challenge that we have with any long term planning now is the way that technology and finance and the world generally is changing right now just because of the Internet and the desire for people to change quickly. You can't anticipate what things are going to be like when you're 60 years old, if you're in your thirties or even your forties. This was it's funny. I think back to when I got my first job out of college, and this guy from, like, Fidelity or whatever, the four zero one k company they had at this company, they came in, and my boss, oh, you should meet with him, talk about retirement. I was like, okay. So I went and I met with him and he, like, gave me, like, the little road map that they give everybody. And he's like, yeah. So, you know, if you invest this much, you know, the company matches. And then if you do it this way, it's like, you'll have, like, a million dollars by the time, you know, you're 65 and you retire.

Dylan Koch: [22:24] Thanks for the 40,000 a year.

Mike DeHaan: [22:26] Well, totally. But so that was was that piece. I was fine. I didn't think about it that way. I was like, but when I'm 65, isn't a million dollars gonna be worth a lot less now? Because, like, money now versus, like, the eighties is worth a lot less. And the dude looked at me like I just spoke fucking Chinese.

Dan Austin: [22:42] He didn't understand that discounted cash flows.

Dylan Koch: [22:44] Which is crazy because, you know, he's just regurgitating what he's been told to say.

Dan Austin: [22:48] Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [22:48] Right. Of course. And I was like, has has nobody ever asked you a question before? Like, everyone just comes in and goes, okay, sir. I'm gonna do this. And that's why all these people are porn.

Dylan Koch: [22:57] You know, at my four zero one k meeting and when I changed employers right before I left forever, I asked about their because a lot of four zero one k's with the the plan sponsors are really fee heavy, and the fees is what kill you. I So asked him, like, how are your guys' fees compared to, like, a VOO or something like that card? And he he just, like like you said, he just kinda stared. He's like,

Dan Austin: [23:16] I don't get asked those questions. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [23:19] I don't know what that means. Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [23:21] I think it's competitive. I'm like, okay. That tells me all I needed to know.

Mike DeHaan: [23:24] Yeah. But, you know, and and, like, it's it's even worse now because, like, there's so many options. And and now we have to deal with, like, the rapid declining of the dollar and, like, all this other shits going on. Who knows, man?

Dylan Koch: [23:35] Do you guys ever think about black swan events that could happen in, like, your business or real estate? And I'll give an example first. It's like, if you are going all in in a in a a specific area and that area loses its only, like, manufacturing plant or, like, its job and, like, all the population leaves, Like, all your value could be wiped out just from something that's outside of your control.

Dan Austin: [23:54] Yeah. Something that you can't control.

Dylan Koch: [23:56] Or the the same side of that token is, like, what if this three d printing technology that builds homes actually takes off and then costs $30,000 to build a house? Like, is that gonna drive values down all across the world? Like, I don't know.

Mike DeHaan: [24:07] Yeah. I don't think about it so much well, I guess with business, like, now that we're in, like, the finance space, the quote, unquote black swan events, like, the biggest things are investors stop buying our debt, capital, different pools sort of dry up.

Dan Austin: [24:22] For our industry, just capital.

Mike DeHaan: [24:23] Yeah. But that's going to happen. It's not even necessarily a black swan event. Talking to our attorney who helped us set up our fund and everything, he basically said that it's not like if that happens, it's when. He's like, it's happened three times over the last five years. You know? And sometimes the money dries up for a month. Sometimes it dries up for an entire year like it did in 2020. And so it will happen. Like, for me personally, I worry more about, like, quote, unquote, black swan offense on, like, a macro level.

Dylan Koch: [24:52] Like a COVID that actually works and wipes out all the old people.

Mike DeHaan: [24:55] Or The United States just fucking doing weird shit, dude. Like, major war, like, things like that. Stuff that can happen, that has happened, that people like to pretend like won't. I worry more about those things because that's completely out of my control, which depending on your view means that you either should worry about it less or worry about it more. Because when it comes to my business, I don't worry about the black swan events because I can adapt to that. When it comes to, like, The United States having a separation of, like, states or something crazy that, like, very might well happen, that's, like, something that could fuck up everything that I have no control over.

Dan Austin: [25:31] And that reason, you shouldn't worry about it. You should worry about it personally because, like, my life will change. But from a business perspective, there's nothing you could do.

Mike DeHaan: [25:38] Yeah. But it's more like having like a backup plan so I'm not like stuck or I'm not tied into the financial system. Honestly, that's a big reason I started buying a lot of Bitcoin over the last six months is because I wanna have a way to access some form of money that isn't tied to The US system. You know? Because I got, like, the cold wallet. I'm texting Dylan. I got all this to figure out. So if I gotta, like, dip out and, like, go across the border to Canada or, like, fly to New Zealand or some shit, I'll at least have some way that I can turn that into local currency.

Dan Austin: [26:06] Or maybe it'll get shut down.

Dylan Koch: [26:08] There's I mean, there's not really a maybe.

Mike DeHaan: [26:09] Maybe. Totally.

Dan Austin: [26:10] When Bill Gates gets arrested.

Dylan Koch: [26:12] As long as you even have a satellite connection. You don't even need an Internet connection. You could you could transfer it. So

Dan Austin: [26:18] That's never been tested.

Dylan Koch: [26:19] Okay, Dan. You're right. You're right. And what's the what's the black swan? He's gonna be more prepared than other people.

Dan Austin: [26:24] I mean, if it got that bad I would say this. If it got bad to where in what I would consider bad for needing to leave the country, I think The US would probably be the last country you'd need to leave. But I would I would think that you're kind of your Bitcoin's really not gonna help you much if it gets to that back, but also everybody's in that same boat.

Dylan Koch: [26:44] Yourself with someone who's in, like, I don't know, a third world country that actually has the money to flee, and then they have capital controls. And they're like, okay. Well, you can't leave with any money that you're here. And, like, well, if you can memorize 12 words, you can go anywhere in the world, and they can't take that from you.

Dan Austin: [26:57] 12 words? What does that mean?

Dylan Koch: [26:59] Yeah. Most seed phrases with hardware wallets are backed by a seed phrase that's 12 or 24 words. A what?

Dan Austin: [27:04] This is new to me. A seed I can't I can't hear you that well. That's why you

Dylan Koch: [27:08] seed phrase?

Mike DeHaan: [27:12] This is why you can never get back into your, your little razor thing that you got.

Dan Austin: [27:17] So you said seed phrases? Are those, like, you're saying, like, password, like, phrases to get to access it?

Dylan Koch: [27:22] Yeah. So, like, let's say you order one of the standard hardware wallets. You or get or actually, you're supposed to randomize it, but you get basically write down 12 or 24 words that let's say and you put the Bitcoin on there. And let's say for some reason your house caught fire, someone stole the the cold card or whatever, then as long as you still know those words, like you haven't written down somewhere, you they're in your head, you could order a new hardware wallet, reupload it, and, like, you still have access to your phone.

Dan Austin: [27:47] Yeah. I would never be able to or remember 12 consecutive words. I would never ever.

Mike DeHaan: [27:51] You just gotta make it words that you know, Dan, like midget. Boob. Boob. Yeah.

Dan Austin: [27:56] No. I will. I I I would I would never. I mean, granted, if there were just 12 random words.

Dylan Koch: [28:01] What's your c three? This dick 12 times.

Mike DeHaan: [28:03] Like yeah.

Dan Austin: [28:04] Exactly. 1, 23456789101112. Yeah. That would be that would be crazy

Dylan Koch: [28:08] for me.

Mike DeHaan: [28:09] That'll can't match your ATM. I will say that

Dan Austin: [28:11] it is kind of you do probably need that because, like, I left Coinbase because I was using Coinbase, and it freaking pissed me off because I sent them $10 and they like held it. And they're like, I can't remember why they held it, but I bought it at at the time what I thought was a good price and then they pulled it off and it was like three weeks of me going back and forth. And of course they don't have a phone that you can call them. You have to message somebody. I don't know who I'm messaging. And they're like, no, sorry.

Dylan Koch: [28:35] Of course not.

Dan Austin: [28:35] We don't know what you're talking about. And I'm like, where's my money? And then you know what? It was wild about it. It was like a month later, they sent it back to me and put it into a random bank account in in one of my accounts. Like, because Fike knows I have like we all but our our bank account has like 30 accounts on it. And like, I have like probably seven or eight personal ones. And like, it just it was a one that I have no idea how they would ever even put it in there.

Mike DeHaan: [28:59] They just like looked you up on the dark web and just went to that account.

Dan Austin: [29:02] It made no sense. Right? Because it's definitely not the account that I had connected. Yeah. Granted, I know when you hit up, like, you you maybe connect with Stripe or one of the or not Stripe, what's that? Plaid. So maybe like Plaid kind of got confused because it has access to all of them. But either way, was like, what the hell? So I moved it over to the one you use, Dylan, and that one's been felt like a lot more secure, but even then you still gotta be like worried.

Dylan Koch: [29:23] Oh, yeah. Have you guys seen, while we're on the topic, Grant Cardone has been turned into, like, a Bitcoin supporter, I guess?

Dan Austin: [29:30] Yeah. So well, I saw him and, Trump's kid did a a Instagram reel or some sort of advertisement about it. I was like, oh, this is awesome. Like, what are these guys up to?

Dylan Koch: [29:40] Well, they're doing like a blended real estate, like Bitcoin, like, fun. And I actually don't think that's a bad idea. It's just the way that he portrays it

Dan Austin: [29:46] is It's having those guys on it is what's going to make me not wanna be part of it. Like, Grant Cardone is like Totally.

Mike DeHaan: [29:54] See. But it's those guys that are just so they're struggling so hard to remain relevant when, you know, just like people care less and less and less about what they're doing. Real estate's not a sexy thing for them anymore. They gotta find whatever their next thing is to remain in the news. That's why he was so involved in, like, politics or, like, in that last little while so he would still engage with this content. Like, these people are content creators. They will become political pundits, financial pundits, social pundits, whatever will get you to watch their stuff. It would be actually interesting to see how much money they make with their actual investments versus their media. Because, like, you know, their social media stuff, like, you can make a lot of money off that with a lot less than you would think in terms of, like, views, engagement, and that kind of stuff, especially if you have, stuff that continues to track views over a long period of time and people go and watch stuff back. Especially YouTube, if you

Dan Austin: [30:50] get up with YouTube.

Mike DeHaan: [30:51] Yeah. That's kind of always been like MrBeast's thing is with a lot of these videos that he makes, it's not like people just watch them right now, but people will go back and watch the old videos. He has videos that he made like four years ago that still spit off tons of cash from the ad revenue that comes in.

Dylan Koch: [31:07] It's like they call it a new version of people who write like got royalties for books.

Mike DeHaan: [31:10] Yeah. Totally, dude. Royalties for books, royalties for movies, that kind of stuff. That that's a that's a good example, actually. And it's very, very similar to that.

Dan Austin: [31:17] The cool thing, I mean, minus Google, you basically own your you own it too. It's like your content, like, not a stew a studio.

Dylan Koch: [31:23] I mean, if you write your own platform, I guess your publisher could like deplatform you, but like YouTube could take your shit down if they want. Like, there's been examples

Dan Austin: [31:29] of that. Yeah. They could. Yeah. So they do kinda own it.

Mike DeHaan: [31:31] There's been people that have been cooked by that because like they'll say something questionable in one video and then their entire channel gets disconnected. But with PewDiePie, who's the big one, if you guys know who that was, he, like, dropped some n bombs on a streaming video and his entire thing got deplatformed. Yeah. You probably shouldn't do that for many reasons. I know. He's from Sweden. That was, like, 2015. That was, like, him just, like, desperately reaching for something. But yeah. I don't know. So I guess, Dylan, what is your forecast for all this stuff over the next year now that we've had the, the big dump? Saw it's already back up to, like, 71 as of right now.

Dylan Koch: [32:06] Yeah. I mean, we

Mike DeHaan: [32:07] Or 70.5.

Dylan Koch: [32:08] We had a good bounce since yesterday. And if this repeats, we kind of find a new floor. There's new people that become long term holders. And people who've made life changing money, yeah, they might have sold, but that's okay. That's what makes a market. Right? Like, you're gonna have new investors that come in. So, I mean, obviously, I can't give, like, a price prediction. I do think we'll be in six figures again by in, like, in 2026. I don't think that's I don't think that's hard

Dan Austin: [32:32] to say. I should just keep buying then. I bought all the way down, not a lot, but then I wanna buy back all the way back up?

Dylan Koch: [32:37] Well, for most people, I would recommend this dollar cost average just like with everything else. You know? Just

Mike DeHaan: [32:41] Just go in right now. It's the lowest it's been in, like, a year. Just don't be a bitch. Just

Dan Austin: [32:45] fucking Yeah. I do I do agree. Like, we may have bounced off the bottom. I mean, I can't can't imagine. Well, I'm not gonna say anything about it. I can't imagine it going down against it could. But it feels like we did bad. Like, there for a couple days, it was like, what's happening? And I was like, you know, we were all texted back and forth and talking about this. But now that it's popped back to 70.

Dylan Koch: [33:04] There was so much speculation too. Like, I I eventually had thought it was like a, you know, just a liquidation event for people getting leveraged. But, like, we're like, oh, the new Fed chair is a hawk. Mean, like, he's gonna be bearish and all this stuff. And, like, he wants a strong dollar. And everyone was just like, they're looking for reasons that justify the price action, not the other way around.

Dan Austin: [33:20] Interesting. Yeah. Do you think there was some FOMO that what it hit a buck 20 and guys were like, I didn't sell. And then it dropped below a 100 and they're like, oh, I should they'll go back. And they're like, you know what? I'm just gonna strip some profit out of here. Like a lot of individuals.

Dylan Koch: [33:32] A good indicator is how many people text me and be like, oh, man, are you selling right now? Or like, what should I be doing? And I was like, this is a good sign.

Dan Austin: [33:38] Yes. It's a good sign. What do you mean that people are

Mike DeHaan: [33:40] because they're engaged. They're thinking about it, which I mean is also why I think we'll drive it back up again. You know? Because also too, if there's been if it's reached out before, there's always an inherent belief that it will do it again. And I was thinking where it starts to get into uncharted territory is when it starts to, like, really push, like, in the last little bit when it, like, went from whatever it was, like, 60 to, like, a 100, like, really fast. It's because people were kind of, like, falling momentum. But then it stayed up there for a long time because

Dylan Koch: [34:07] Above a 100,000 for, like, almost six months straight. Like, there was not much volatility in Bitcoin for a while, then we got it all at once.

Mike DeHaan: [34:14] You know what it is? It's very because your set point of what something's worth changes so quickly. It's like houses. You know, like with our real estate business, we all experienced this where you had all these people that were like, you know, my house is worth $400,000. It's like, it's not anymore. It was in '22. And I also know that when you bought it, in fact, three years before you talked to me, it was worth, like, 200,000. But as soon as they hit 400, you're like, that's what my house is worth now forever, and you own that. And so I think that people, when it comes to something like Bitcoin, which is honestly, you know what the biggest thing with Bitcoin is so powerful? It has such great branding because you can say, I own, a single coin. And so people, like, give a valuation of, like, one coin. Right? Like, they can, like, view that. Or you see, like, something like Ethereum, like, you say, how much Ethereum do you have? You say it in, a wider metric instead of, like, I own, like, a singular thing. So people will say, like, what is what is a Bitcoin at right now? Oh, it's at $70. K? So there it gives an inherent value.

Dylan Koch: [35:12] There is some talk in the community about, like so an individual, like, I think it's a 100,000,000 decimal points. And it, like, one Satoshi is, like, the smallest denomination. But people are like, if you say 1 Bitcoin, like, there's perception that because it's at 60,000, that if someone invests $5, that money is not gonna change their life. Right? Because they don't think it could have an exponential growth where someone invests $5 into something that is $5. Like, it has a higher chance of going to 60,000 or whatever, which obviously is not true. That's not how that works. This is like the the human psychology of that. It's like when people like, when stocks do, like, stock splits just to get the price lower till it looks more affordable. Elon Musk has done that, like, 10 times.

Mike DeHaan: [35:50] Yeah. People are bad at math.

Dylan Koch: [35:52] Yeah. Most of them

Mike DeHaan: [35:53] because everyone's dumb now.

Dylan Koch: [35:54] Well, like, I see the the the crypto space was funny. Like, when Dogecoin or whatever was going around, it was, like, 5¢. They're like, if this goes to a dollar, like, if this goes to a dollar, that's a $500,000,000,000,000 market gap. Can you do that?

Mike DeHaan: [36:07] I know.

Dylan Koch: [36:07] Spathom what that means? Like

Dan Austin: [36:09] know. I People don't think about that.

Mike DeHaan: [36:10] Yeah. No. People don't do this. We're talking back in fucking 2017 again. That's how that's why everything was. They're like, anything's possible.

Dylan Koch: [36:18] Yeah. The opposite? Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [36:20] Well, it's like it's like, if that's worth a dollar, it would be, like, a larger market cap than, like, The United States and Europe and fucking all the money in the world. All the dollars would have to be in there. We just decided that that is the only currency that everybody's using is that now.

Dylan Koch: [36:35] Yep. And it's gonna happen overnight or the next year.

Mike DeHaan: [36:38] It's gonna happen. Yeah. Right. So but anyways. Alright, guys. Anything to wrap up?

Dylan Koch: [36:43] I'm good. No. I am optimistic about the future. That's what I'll be leave with.

Dan Austin: [36:47] I like your optimism. I'm optimistic. I bought 5 k while we were sitting here talking.

Dylan Koch: [36:51] Love it. There you go.

Mike DeHaan: [36:52] Look at that. Put it on an Amex. Get yourself some, freaking fire miles right

Dylan Koch: [36:56] there.

Dan Austin: [36:56] Oh, yeah. I'm levering up, dude.

Mike DeHaan: [36:58] We should rip it all in the old, like, collecting keys card that has omitted, and then just let it bounce. What are you gonna do? Come after the LLC? There's no money. Fuck it. Probably shouldn't have recorded that.

Dylan Koch: [37:07] It might come out to us now. I'm hoping this is your name on that card. Thirty seconds.

Mike DeHaan: [37:11] Yeah. Right. That's right. Deal with the Amex. Suck it. Nothing

Dylan Koch: [37:14] less than that.

Mike DeHaan: [37:15] And I have a limited liability company for a reason. Cool. Alright. Well, thanks for coming to coin talk with Dylan and Dan Coin talk. And sometimes Mike. See you guys.

Dylan Koch: [37:24] Bye. See you.

Mike DeHaan: [37:25] This episode is sponsored by Sir Lenzelot LLC, also known as SLA Capital, which, if you didn't know, is Dan and I's private lending company. So, yes, we are sponsoring our own show, but what you're gonna do about it? It is our private lending company that offers hard money and DSCR loans to real estate investors of all types. So you can be a new investor, an experienced investor. You can be buying flips. You can be buying rentals, whatever. We can do everything. And not only that, but the rates that we offer are just as competitive, if not cheaper, than pretty much every other company out there. So whatever big company you've been working with, bring us their term sheets, and I guarantee that we can probably beat it. We have the same connections they do. We just don't have all the overhead and middlemen. So if you wanna come and check us out, go to slacapital.com/keys, and I will know that you came from the show. And by seeing that you came from here, when you get the closing, you will save $500 on your first loan with us. So slacapital.com/keys, we would love to fund your next deal. Thanks for listening, everyone. If you want more from us, you can shoot us a follow on Instagram. I am at Mike underscore Invest. Dan is at investor man. Dan and Dylan is at Dylan underscore does underscore deals. Choose to follow and send us a DM to let us know what you think of the show.