Collecting Keys - Real Estate Investing Podcast

AI Can Actually Hurt Your Business (& Cost You Deals)

Episode 485 · · 44 min

Hosted by Mike DeHaan, Dan Austin, Dylan Koch

▶ Watch this episode on YouTube

In this episode

Mike, Dan and Dylan argue that AI is being oversold in real estate, using examples like a ChatGPT valuation that reportedly blew up a $50M Serhant deal and small business owners obsessing over automations instead of sales. They also cover lending frictions (slow payoff statements, title company timing), Fannie Mae's limited crypto-for-closing-costs headline, and a wave of rate increases tied to oil and the Iran conflict.

Key takeaways

  • ChatGPT can wreck real transactions: Ryan Serhant reportedly lost a $50M deal (roughly $1.5M in commission) after both buyer and seller asked AI if they were getting a good deal and got opposite answers from the same information.
  • Most AI use cases investors brag about already existed — connecting a lead form to a CRM is Zapier, which has been around for over a decade.
  • If your business is doing ~$500k a year, more sales beats more automation; processes change so fast at small scale that heavy automation work gets thrown away.
  • The 'Fannie Mae accepts crypto mortgages' headline is much smaller than it sounds — it's limited to covering up to $10,000 in closing costs, likely over-collateralized, and reads mostly as a lead-generation play by one lender.
  • Lending got choppy: one investor pushed 14 rate increases in a single week (versus a normal one or two a month), fix-and-flip/RTL rates moved up about an eighth to a half point, and lenders are demanding more proof of primary residence on DSCR loans due to occupancy fraud.
  • Payoff statements are a common deal killer — layers of note servicers and approvals can stretch them two to three weeks, and the hosts describe losing a pre-foreclosure purchase to auction over one.
  • Macro worry is unproductive: focus on what you control, keep flipping, and build a defensible position (cash reserves, mobility) rather than freezing your business.

Show notes

Everyone's telling you AI is gonna change your business. They're right —  but it could actually be costing you deals.

In this episode, we break down why AI is being wildly oversold in real estate, how the focus on automations is costing you money, and the rate chaos hitting investors right now.

We also get into the macro stuff nobody wants to talk about: what a war with Iran is doing to the economy and how to keep your head in the game when everything feels unstable.

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Chapters

  1. 0:00 Introduction
  2. 1:34 Realities of the lending business - and why payoff statements take so long
  3. 6:29 Crypto-backed mortgages
  4. 9:17 How AI has cost real estate investors deals
  5. 18:37 Tesla robots, Waymo self-driving cars, and the future of automation
  6. 27:28 The war with Iran and what it means for the economy
  7. 37:49 Interest rate chaos and DSCR fraud crackdowns

Frequently asked questions

Can AI tools like ChatGPT be trusted to value real estate?

The hosts say no. They cite Ryan Serhant's $50M deal where ChatGPT told the seller the property was worth more and the buyer it was worth less from essentially the same prompt, and the deal appeared to fall apart as a result.

Did Fannie Mae really start accepting crypto-backed mortgages?

Only in a very narrow way. Per the discussion, crypto can be used to cover up to $10,000 in closing costs — it isn't wrapped into the loan — and the hosts suspect it's largely a marketing hook for lead capture.

Why does it take so long to get a mortgage payoff statement?

Because the request passes through third-party note servicers and then back to the lender or fund for approval of late fees and extension fees, often across time zones. Mike says that relay of approvals adds days or weeks even though the calculation is just math.

AI & TechPrivate Money & LendingMarket Updates

Transcript

Read the full transcript

Mike DeHaan: [0:00] One of our investors had 14 rate increases. Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [0:03] Oh, man.

Mike DeHaan: [0:04] Yeah. I think it was, like, Monday or Tuesday. We had three in the same day. You typically will get one or two a month. We have 14 a week. I mean, like, literally just this morning, he reposted that reel about how he has a UPS store on his driver's license.

Dylan Koch: [0:19] Shut the fuck up.

Dan Austin: [0:20] Why are you still doing that, dude? Stop it.

Mike DeHaan: [0:23] And, like, you posted that once and it's illegal, and you just doubled down. You posted the same video again. That just shows how much bullshit they throw out there purely just to get engagement. It doesn't make any sense.

Dylan Koch: [0:34] The scenario this morning was the new buyer. They bought a place subject to and the seller, sorry, no longer qualified to buy another place because their their DTI was screwed up.

Mike DeHaan: [0:45] I saw this.

Dylan Koch: [0:46] And everyone is basically like, oh, just execute like a lease or give them a lease so the bank looks like it's rent. And the guy that was calling them out, good on him, was basically like, hey, you can't do that after the fact. Like, you're basically committing mortgage fraud at this point. And it just seems like someone else is like, this is just like par for the course.

Mike DeHaan: [1:02] That's what they do, man. I don't know. What's going on, guys? Welcome to collecting keys. I'm Mike DeHaan here with clicky clack keyboard, Dan and Dylan Cook back in the office today.

Dan Austin: [1:14] Just trying to just trying to get some stuff done while you guys just goof off over here.

Mike DeHaan: [1:17] I know. I know. Sorry. We gotta we're gonna have a little change from last week where Dan was talking about dismantling gurus' bodies to create traps to catch animals on an island. But, we'll talk some real business today. And poor Dan over there since it recording on Thursday. It's funny. As we've been getting more and more trouble ending business, Thursday, Fridays are, not good days to take off or have distractions because we are always fucking slammed.

Dylan Koch: [1:41] Hey. As a lender, you always wanna close on fry like, Fridays at the end of the month, imagine are the worst days for lenders.

Mike DeHaan: [1:48] Yeah. And but one of the challenges is, like, no matter how much you try to, like, move things forward, the title company sets the tone at the end of the day, and they wanna close everything on Friday. And so even if you try to, like, get us a forward, what what people don't always understand is, you know, we will be waiting for conditions from the title company. And then all of a sudden, they will send an email with those conditions or, like, the title docs, whatever. And then for the next two hours, they're emailing us every seven minutes saying, where's my documents? I need the documents. And then they go back to the bar and they're like, sorry. Your lender's fucking trash. I don't know why they have those documents yet. We were waiting for you dumbasses.

Dylan Koch: [2:28] This sounds very accurate. Can you elaborate? And this might not be a thing for you, but it definitely is for bigger lenders. I'm talking like the Wells Fargo's or whatever. Why it takes like five freaking days to get a payoff statement?

Mike DeHaan: [2:40] So if if you're working with, a small lender, it doesn't always. It depends on who's servicing your loan. So, with us, with the the stuff that we sell to larger institutional investors, they'll use these third party note servicing companies, FCI, Celine, Fay, whatever. Basically, what it has to look like is you have to request it through them, then it goes off to some foreign island where their team works, where they have to wake up the next day and then see it. And then they pass it through their bullshit. Right? And then it finally gets back to you. So there's, like, so many hands that are involved kind of unnecessarily.

Dan Austin: [3:16] A lot of approvals.

Mike DeHaan: [3:17] A lot of approvals. And then the problem is a lot of the investors, especially on, like, the fix and flip side, those would be relatively, like, small funds in terms of, like, a staff base. And you gotta wait for, like, the one person who's probably, like, a recent grad from Wharton or Princeton that works there to approve it, and he's hungover. He's not coming to work on Tuesday. It's a mental health day. Right? But so it's not gonna get approved till he's back in office?

Dylan Koch: [3:42] To me, it just doesn't seem like that's necessary because it's literally math.

Mike DeHaan: [3:45] Of course, it's not necessary.

Dylan Koch: [3:47] Like, you can go down to the day, like, figure out what the payoff is. Yeah. And you can do the per day thing to figure out, okay. If it's not today, it's the next day. But it doesn't work the way that way.

Mike DeHaan: [3:55] This is kind of the racket of the whole thing is because they want to like, the note servicing company wants the lender to approve, Are there any late fees? Is there any extension fees? Right? Is there any other stuff? But the whole point of the note servicing company is to have all that stuff already.

Dylan Koch: [4:11] Right. Right.

Mike DeHaan: [4:12] You know? So like they're basically just sending what they already know to the investor to approve it.

Dylan Koch: [4:17] We miss I'm going to call Wells Fargo out again just because I've had such terrible experiences. We would have bought a house and saved the guy from foreclosure, but we didn't get the payoff in time. Really? So we went to auction. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [4:27] That's crazy. See, sometimes I feel like when it comes to stuff like that, they're almost doing it intentionally.

Dylan Koch: [4:31] I that's what I said.

Mike DeHaan: [4:33] Yeah. Because we've had similar situations. I'm trying to remember which one, Dan, we had a while back. It might've been a private lender. I can't remember. But it was like three weeks in, and we still hadn't gotten a payoff statement. We've been calling them. Everyone's been calling them, and they're just like, sorry. I don't know. Don't know where it is. Then we ended up not closing it.

Dylan Koch: [4:49] Yeah. Exactly. And it was an inexcusable time frame. It was like two weeks. Right? Like that you you don't need that long to get a payoff statement.

Dan Austin: [4:55] No. No. Meanwhile, we have I don't know if the chance to do this. We got a guy right now that's at the closing table. And, the title company forgot to order the payoff from us. Love that.

Mike DeHaan: [5:05] That's awesome. Who's that?

Dan Austin: [5:07] Twenty eighteen Pacific.

Mike DeHaan: [5:09] Oh, that's because he's an idiot. I'm sure.

Dan Austin: [5:12] Yeah. Yeah. Do you have a loan on this? No.

Mike DeHaan: [5:16] Yeah. Probably. Well, that should show

Dylan Koch: [5:17] up in a title search. Right? Like

Dan Austin: [5:19] Yeah. But Everybody should have.

Mike DeHaan: [5:20] There's always lots of moving parts, those kind of things. I don't know. Like, there's just so many things that shouldn't take as long as they do. They do just because it relies on a relay of information to another person. And that's where everything always falls off. Sure. Like how many times you've closed loans and then the insurance company just never gets paid because the escrow company just never sends the money to the insurance company, I guess? Mhmm. And I'm like, well, where does the money go? I don't understand. And then next thing you know, the borrower's calling us and they're like, hey, I got a letter saying that you guys are going to buy your own insurance if I don't get insurance. And then found out the insurance company never got paid. The escrow company is like, oh, we sent that to you. And we're like, no, you didn't.

Dylan Koch: [6:01] Yeah. I've had that too where I had already paid like a year's up front, but they still wanted to escrow my insurance. It's just a mess.

Mike DeHaan: [6:08] I don't know. And then the crazy thing is is they take all this mess, and then the big companies will bundle it up into these $300,000,000 tranches and then sell it as a bond to some bank.

Dylan Koch: [6:18] A triple a reason too.

Mike DeHaan: [6:19] A triple a.

Dan Austin: [6:20] Yeah. And someone's someone's retirement's invested in it.

Mike DeHaan: [6:23] Yeah. I know. That's definitely not a scam on a house of cards.

Dylan Koch: [6:27] Well, speaking of loans, do you guys see that Coinbase is gonna start dipping into the mortgage market?

Mike DeHaan: [6:33] Interesting. Well, just like with everything like this, it's the headline's not exactly what it seems. Because the headline that you sent over this morning was Fannie Mae to accept crypto backed mortgages for the first time. And then as you put you read into the fine details a little bit. And it basically says that they will allow it to cover up to $10,000 in closing costs, and that's it.

Dylan Koch: [6:55] Yeah. Right. And so it's really you're saving money out of pocket. Yeah. Don't think it's wrapped into the actual loan at all.

Mike DeHaan: [7:01] So do you use the Bitcoin to pay the closing costs? Is that kind of the premise? Like, they, like, have to send it to someone's wallet?

Dylan Koch: [7:07] They still haven't came out with the actual details, but I would assume that it's escrowed somewhere and it's over collateralized. So, like, you have to give them 20 to $30,000 in Bitcoin to cover the $10,000 in closing cost.

Mike DeHaan: [7:20] Yeah. Because like a lot of lenders right now will use crypto or Bitcoin as like a way to meet the liquidity requirements as somebody Right. You have like a stock portfolio.

Dylan Koch: [7:31] Right.

Mike DeHaan: [7:31] But using it for part of the transaction. Because the whole point of it was they wanted to make it so that people didn't have to have a taxable event.

Dan Austin: [7:40] Correct.

Mike DeHaan: [7:40] But I don't know how they would do that without them, like, receiving Bitcoin as part of the transaction. Because they're not gonna like be like, oh, well, you got a million and 0.5 in Bitcoin. Cool. You don't have to get down payment on the house then.

Dylan Koch: [7:52] Right. Because you would think that they would convert it to Yeah. The dollars and then that would therefore create the event. Yeah. Yeah. Time will tell. I mean, this just came out this morning and of course, there's really no roadmap on how how it's been working.

Dan Austin: [8:04] So As you can't imagine, it'll be useful. No. A useful tool whatsoever is like one of those things.

Dylan Koch: [8:09] Well, $10 is not a lot when it comes to like

Dan Austin: [8:13] It's like when you get into some of these like complicated real estate transactions that, you know, people might do on a commercial property, but you see these dorks doing it on a residential single family home or whether, you know, doing their chopped up, you know, co living housing. It's like some cases, in most cases, all the effort to get this 10 k back to Bitcoin is probably not worth it for anybody.

Dylan Koch: [8:33] Yeah. You

Dan Austin: [8:34] know? Like, there's just the effort to get it to work. You're like, it's not worth it.

Mike DeHaan: [8:37] Well, I mean, if you look at how the headlines kinda stretch in the day, because it's a specific company. Right? It's Better Home and Finance. And so I'm pretty sure it's a marketing tactic, is they get all these people that reach out and be like, oh, you'll use my Bitcoin now? And they go, yeah, totally. And they get you in the system, and they fill out all the bullshit, And then you pay for the appraisal and you're going through things like, well, actually, this is what we can use it for. Do you still wanna do it or not? And now regardless if you're gonna buy the house, they now have your information that they can sell, they can market to you with, and eventually you'll come back to them.

Dylan Koch: [9:07] Sounds like lenders where they overpromised then under delivered at the last second.

Mike DeHaan: [9:11] That's that's every industry in the world.

Dylan Koch: [9:13] I know. I just like to pick on pick on it now.

Mike DeHaan: [9:16] It's like everything. Like, it's such a weird time, I feel like, to be in business. And maybe it's always been like this, but I feel like everyone feels like they're an expert on everything because you just have such a high access to information at all times. And it's made worse with, like, AI because now you can talk to this robot that just, like, gives you an answer that it is absolutely certain is the correct answer. And I think the way that it gives it to you, it's always like so confident. And then it always phrases it in a way where it knows you're gonna like the answer. Right?

Dylan Koch: [9:47] If you don't have that mental acuity to question that, you're just like, oh, yeah. This is right.

Mike DeHaan: [9:51] Yeah. Totally. You know, a good example of this, and we talked about this earlier, but Ryan Serhant, he has this very, very high luxury brokerage in New York City. Like his whole thing is he sells these like tens, hundreds, million dollar sort of penthouse in New York City.

Dylan Koch: [10:06] Billionaire Row. Yeah. Billionaire Row.

Mike DeHaan: [10:08] That's like his jam. He has a whole TV show around

Dan Austin: [10:10] it. Mhmm.

Mike DeHaan: [10:10] But he he posted a reel yesterday talking about how they were right at the finish line of a $50,000,000 transaction. And they had speed bumps at the very end because both the seller and the buyer asked if they were getting a good deal. And it basically, it told them both no. The ChatGPT. ChatGPT, specifically. Yeah. So it told the seller that the property was worth more than they're selling it for, and it told the buyer that the property is worth less than they're buying it for.

Dan Austin: [10:37] Oh my gosh.

Mike DeHaan: [10:38] Right? It's the same prompt. Technically, it should be looking at the same information, but it's giving a different answer. And as he was he was sort of, like, giving updates in his comments as it was going down, it didn't look like it actually went through. It looks like it actually got blown up because of that.

Dylan Koch: [10:52] Yeah. I mean, he said he lost out the commission, which is 1,500,000 from ChatGPT.

Mike DeHaan: [10:57] Not only that, but, like, he said he'd been working on that for, like, six plus months, plus he built all the relationships with these people beforehand. Because when you're doing real estate transactions at that scale, it's not like you're just, like, listing it and waiting for a buyer. Like, you have to be in the network to even know the people that are buying real estate like Totally. You know, which is a very special club. But, you know, shot down by freaking ChatGPT because it went, well, that's a great question. Let me tell you exactly why 50,000,000 is not a good price for that property.

Dylan Koch: [11:23] Yeah. And vice versa with the other guy, you know. And you are totally right. And that's hopefully something gets figured out. That basically if you just said, you can program it to give you the answer that you want eventually.

Mike DeHaan: [11:34] Or it just it just tells you what you want to hear after a while, like gaslights you. This is my my big argument with it.

Dan Austin: [11:39] I don't understand the value of ChatGPT because it seems like it's does that a lot. I don't hear this much from the other AIs, but they all have their own quirks. Right? But ChatGPT in general seems to be like very inaccurate, lied to you, has some stupid stuff. They there's like straight stuff that it just won't tell you. Like, I've prompted it on stuff. I'm trying to think of the last one I tried to prompt it. I was talking to somebody about something religious, and I asked them to give me the,

Mike DeHaan: [12:04] Give me the proof of God. Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [12:06] Me the proof of the note.

Dan Austin: [12:06] It was something simple like, oh, can you can you give me the, Sermon of the Mount or whatever it's called, Sermon at the Mount? And it's like, sorry, I can't provide you with that type of information. I was like, that's Like, that's just like a document. Like, that's like a book. It's like a page out of a book.

Dylan Koch: [12:21] Did you guys see the tests that people were doing online with this? They would basically ask all the different AIs, basically, hey, I need to take my car to the car wash. It's a 100 meters away. Should I walk or drive there?

Dan Austin: [12:33] Oh, yeah. Yeah. And a lot of them a lot of

Dylan Koch: [12:35] them said you should walk because it's faster.

Mike DeHaan: [12:37] That's so funny.

Dylan Koch: [12:38] Not understanding that the whole Yeah. Freaking purpose is to wash the car. So yeah. A long way to go with that though. Right?

Dan Austin: [12:45] Are we sure that it's just not a bunch of Filipinos?

Dylan Koch: [12:48] That'd be pretty quick.

Dan Austin: [12:49] Like, some of

Dylan Koch: [12:49] the response times will be quick.

Mike DeHaan: [12:51] There was that one company that Amazon had backed. It was one of like the flow state coding companies, whatever they call it, the vibe coding.

Dylan Koch: [13:00] Vibe coding stuff.

Mike DeHaan: [13:01] And they it turned out because like what would happen is you would do it and they would be like, yes. The agents are working in the background and they'll come back. And it was literally just going to a bunch of Indian dudes that were like rapidly Oh, man. Walking away. Yeah. I'm trying to remember which company that was. You go Google. See with like the AI fraud with Indian coders. It was a whole thing because they they had had they'd received like massive investment, like $50,000,000 to some of these companies. It was all bullshit. Really?

Dan Austin: [13:25] Yeah. I don't remember if I shared it with this whole group, but I know I shared with Mike that though the Washington State, like, Department of Licensing used AI to for its Spanish speaking agents. And all it was was just a, an American, language with a Spanish accent.

Mike DeHaan: [13:41] It was like it was

Dan Austin: [13:41] like in English, and it

Mike DeHaan: [13:42] was like half like a fake, like, Spanish accent.

Dylan Koch: [13:46] That is It's hilarious.

Mike DeHaan: [13:47] So you'd call into the Washington DOT's

Dan Austin: [13:49] Yeah. And use

Mike DeHaan: [13:50] And it and it would just be like yeah. As if as if you had like a someone that spoke English as a second language and had a strong accent.

Dan Austin: [13:57] That's your Azteca and you're trying to order burritos from the white the white kid. Oh, That's

Mike DeHaan: [14:03] funny. So

Dan Austin: [14:04] bad, dude.

Dylan Koch: [14:04] That's like worse than like did they have Google translate ten years ago?

Mike DeHaan: [14:07] Like

Dylan Koch: [14:08] I know. That's so bad.

Mike DeHaan: [14:10] Well, no. It spoke well. The problem was is it was just it was putting on a fake accent. Yeah.

Dylan Koch: [14:15] Was like if you were

Mike DeHaan: [14:15] trying to imitate somebody. It's such a weird time with that kind of stuff because I feel like it's really started to gain momentum with a lot of people. And there's so many people all in my social media and everywhere that are talking about all these, like, different, like, claw bots and all the

Dylan Koch: [14:30] shit they're

Mike DeHaan: [14:30] building. Open claw bots.

Dan Austin: [14:31] I have

Mike DeHaan: [14:31] yet to have someone give me an actual applicable use case that isn't more than just like it manages my email inbox. They always talk about these things that they're doing.

Dan Austin: [14:40] Which I call BS on the whole email inbox. There's no way. How useless is your inbox if you have AI managing it?

Mike DeHaan: [14:45] Exactly. We get more emails than most people. I guarantee it because we're included on everything with all of our loans and our business and everything else. You fall behind, but like it's still somewhat manageable. Like, I don't understand what they're doing. And I've I've like begged people. I'm like, can you please show me what you're doing? And they're always like, you just don't get it. I'm like, shut the fuck up. Like, it doesn't make any fundamental sense.

Dan Austin: [15:06] This is my opinion. It's highly, highly overstated, especially by individuals that want to be in the know and wanna be on the on the bleeding edge of technology or whatever. But the value will come. It's just not here yet. Like, there's clearly a stated value proposition here. It's just not there yet. So when you're saying that you're getting so much value of it out of AI, is it like just not great value?

Mike DeHaan: [15:28] Or it's stuff that existed before. You just didn't know how to do it. Right? Like, I I've gotten a lot of posts of business owners that are dudes are like ten years older than me. And so, I don't know, I'm a little bit of a nerd, so I kind of have been in the depths of some of the automations that was available with business for a while. And they'll be like, I just used Claude to build an automation that connects our lead form to our CRM. Like, that's called Zapier. It's been around for fucking fifteen years.

Dan Austin: [15:53] Yeah. Yeah. But ChatGeeby told them about

Mike DeHaan: [15:55] it. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. I'm like, what are you doing?

Dylan Koch: [15:58] I tend to agree. Like, the the prompting is so important depending on what you're asking it. And then two, it's just not there yet, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to it. Because there might be use cases that, you know, a year, two, three years from now.

Mike DeHaan: [16:11] Oh, yeah. No doubt. I like we've talked about this before. I think that ultimately, the value will be people that are doing it, like plugging into existing specific things and not trying to create stuff from scratch.

Dylan Koch: [16:21] Yeah. Yeah. I I would agree with that.

Dan Austin: [16:23] Dude, so I have literally on the my left screen here, I have AI working for me. It's my underwriting spreadsheet for these loans. And I can see where our Filipino processor is clicking through and making edits and changing things.

Mike DeHaan: [16:35] So that's that's your AIs?

Dan Austin: [16:37] It works great. And she's awesome and a great employee and works hard and all that stuff.

Dylan Koch: [16:42] Yeah. But she needs to go to the bathroom. And so

Dan Austin: [16:45] She does have to take bathroom breaks, which I'm okay with.

Mike DeHaan: [16:47] It's inefficient though. She she can't be doing that. She needs to bring her laptop with her.

Dan Austin: [16:50] No one or hers, she probably does.

Mike DeHaan: [16:52] Yeah. Right. They are very loyal that way. But yeah. I think my general view on it, I saw because Cole Red Johnson shared this on Instagram. I I reshoot it. I thought it pretty funny. And it's just it was like a tweet, it said, I am eight hundred and thirty seven hours into automating a task that I do four times a year that takes thirty seconds. 100% sure. Yeah.

Dan Austin: [17:13] And Mike and I have learned this a long time ago in business. It's like, some stuff is not worth automating. No. Like the effort and the work, and guess what? Your business will change so quickly, especially if you're like growing a business. Like sometimes you just gotta muscle through it until you get to more of plateau phase, which I don't know where when that is. I've don't feel like I've ever been in business that plateaus for years at a time.

Mike DeHaan: [17:33] Especially if you're a small business, you know? I think that's the issue is you have all these people that have a business that's doing like $500,000 a year, and they're obsessed with trying to optimize with AI. And I'm like, really, if you just did more sales, you wouldn't care.

Dan Austin: [17:44] Go hire a person to do some of that back office crap and just go focus on getting more leads, more sales, more closings.

Dylan Koch: [17:51] It's always dynamic. There's two times I can think of that's like, okay. I created the Loom video. I got all the SOPs. I get to someone else. Well, then the website that you use for all those SOPs changes.

Mike DeHaan: [18:01] Exactly.

Dylan Koch: [18:01] Breaks everything else. Right?

Mike DeHaan: [18:03] Yeah. Or or your just general standard processes change because you outgrow that part of the business. When you're small, you change so frequently. Mhmm. It's true. I don't know. We'll see what happens either way. Like, what's going on right now is so different than what existed two years ago. It'll be way different than what exists two years from now. Either way, I'm just ready for for the the robots. Some of you guys saw Melania Trump walk out with one of, like, the Trump robots the other day. Mhmm. It'll be interesting to see what the first applications are of those.

Dan Austin: [18:29] What do mean Trump robot? Am I missing?

Mike DeHaan: [18:30] Oh, sorry. One of one of the Tesla robots.

Dan Austin: [18:32] Oh, the okay.

Mike DeHaan: [18:34] Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But she, like, walked out for whatever she was at with one of the robots. I'm I'm really interested to see what the first uses of that are. I mean, they're very human like. They can do human like tasks, and it's supposed to be basically like a $25,000 onetime cost to own these things.

Dan Austin: [18:48] Well, I'm sure there'll be a monthly subscription fee for sure. Totally. Totally.

Mike DeHaan: [18:52] They'll have, like, planned obsolescence in, the knees and, the hips. Right. So they have, like, the same issues as,

Dylan Koch: [18:58] like, workers. If you wanted to do dishes, it's $20. If you wanna do laundry, it's an additional 20.

Dan Austin: [19:03] Exact no shit.

Mike DeHaan: [19:04] Right? Then you have

Dan Austin: [19:05] to start paying an allowance. I was watching a thing about the Tesla robot several months ago, maybe like even last year where it was Elon getting interviewed as usual. And he's talking about how they built a robot and decided to design it to fit into the human world, as opposed to a lot of robots are designed to work in like their own world, their own space. So it's more applicable for day to day uses for things that are already existing in our environment. So like it's built to mow be able to mow your lawn. Yeah. It's more humanoid than a lot of other robots in the past. Right?

Mike DeHaan: [19:36] Yeah. I mean, I cannot imagine a situation where fast forwarding five or ten years where they aren't like the bulk of people in or the bulk of like the workers in some of all these factories and stuff that have like repetitive tasks.

Dan Austin: [19:48] This is scary to think. Think about all the home services like lawn mowing, like raking your yard. Like I had some landscapers up here to look at some of the stuff in my house like, you know, install some plants, like dig the holes and do some other like small little jobs. And I'm like, I don't know if a robot could do that yet and probably not, but maybe it could. And if it can, why would I hire the landscaper? So I can tell the robot when and how and what to do and they don't they show up when I need them to.

Mike DeHaan: [20:14] You can have them come do it at two in the morning if you want.

Dan Austin: [20:16] Like, seriously. Yeah. Yeah. So that that is weird.

Dylan Koch: [20:19] Do they also order the materials? Do you know? Do they take their Tesla car and pick up materials?

Dan Austin: [20:23] Why couldn't they, dude?

Mike DeHaan: [20:24] Yeah. Why couldn't? Probably. Self driving car. I mean, or they'll have that shit delivered by drone. They're already doing Totally. Like drone deliveries in bigger cities where like they're flying them in and dropping stuff.

Dylan Koch: [20:35] Oh, I was in Phoenix this past week. And I guess that's where Waymo, the Google car, like the bulk of their first testing. They were everywhere. It's kinda wild to see, like, these driverless cars go around. And then my buddy took one to the airport and he said it was no no problem at all.

Dan Austin: [20:51] Prefer them. They're actually really nice.

Mike DeHaan: [20:52] Yeah. Yeah.

Dan Austin: [20:53] They're really nice. You can't go on the freeway though. At least the last time I took one you can't. And so you have it takes you like these weird back roads to the airport. You're like, where am I going? Like, this is sketchy.

Dylan Koch: [21:03] The one that's gonna off me.

Dan Austin: [21:04] Yeah. Seriously. Like, they're legit. They're good at it. I've heard in Austin, people are seeing the Tesla one. There's Tesla there too now. And so the Tesla car, which is more like, can't really tell right away because the Tesla car is just the car where the Waymo has all the it's like the Jaguar with all like the stuff strapped

Dylan Koch: [21:22] to it. Yeah. There's bells and whistles all over that thing. But I mean, it knew like to turn right on red when something else wasn't there. It had like some construction stuff there. I was wondering, my buddy's like, got my clubs in my back. I feel like I'm gonna get on my car if it's gonna take off.

Dan Austin: [21:34] I know. Is sketchy, dude. Yeah. There's like little things that you gotta worry about. Like, thought it like, I wanted to take me to Starbucks on the way somewhere, but I'm like, shit, if I get out, will it just like ditch me? Because you have like a at small least when I like a year ago when I took it last time, I was like, only have a certain amount of time before it's like, yeah, get out. We'll release it.

Mike DeHaan: [21:51] Yeah. Yeah. So now now this has me thinking, okay, so let's say I'm traveling with my baby and I need Oh, to do Like I throw in like a car seat really quick.

Dan Austin: [21:59] Because you

Mike DeHaan: [21:59] can get car seats, you can install super fast, but it might take like two minutes. And then she's gonna be like, Nope, we're leaving.

Dan Austin: [22:04] Two minutes, dude? I don't know what kind of competition you put yourself in. It's like twelve minutes.

Mike DeHaan: [22:08] Well, for old for you. I'm letting my wife do it. She's the confident.

Dan Austin: [22:14] Yeah. Those things are a bitch.

Dylan Koch: [22:15] Yeah. Good question. Like, if you need a car seat or I don't know, stroller in the back that you need to get Yeah. I don't know.

Mike DeHaan: [22:21] Yeah. All of a sudden, you're you're going and like just taking off with your kid in the car still

Dan Austin: [22:25] because he's

Mike DeHaan: [22:26] gonna be like you. They're like sitting like below the sensors or it's like a rear facing thing, so it can't see him.

Dan Austin: [22:31] Oh, dude.

Mike DeHaan: [22:33] It'll happen, I bet. They have to have some sort of fail safe for it.

Dylan Koch: [22:36] Yeah. I didn't deliver a kid though.

Mike DeHaan: [22:38] Yeah. Gonna be a case of going like going to pick someone up and there's like a baby just sitting in the back like

Dan Austin: [22:44] Yeah. Did I tell you guys a story where I almost got beat up because I was in a waymo?

Dylan Koch: [22:48] What? No.

Dan Austin: [22:48] Yeah. So I was down in Scottsdale. There's a place, what is the hotel called? The Ambassador's Club, baby. It's like a nice, like, bar hotel thing.

Mike DeHaan: [22:57] It sounds like where old men go to meet younger women. It definitely

Dan Austin: [23:00] is, dude. For for sure. Why do

Dylan Koch: [23:02] you think they must there?

Dan Austin: [23:04] Yeah. Exactly. So it's actually a cool spot. I can't remember.

Mike DeHaan: [23:06] I don't

Dan Austin: [23:06] think it's called the Ambassador Club. It's called something else. It is a hotel, but the Main Floor is like kind of like a bar club thing. They got like live music and all that. But because of that, like they have this drop off, like it's a hotel, but then like it turns into more of like a valet at night. And so we called it a Waymo and it was packed. Like we were leaving like prime time when all the cool people were coming, which is like 11:00 at night. And some lady had gotten drunk and like fell over and like bashed her head on the ground, like right in front of us, bam, just like busted her head open and she was out. And so they called an ambulance. So all these people in their fancy like Ferraris and black car drop offs are trying to get into this thing. Meanwhile, there's a full fire truck and an ambulance coming in. All at the same time, we're piling into our Waymo, which was in that, it was like a whole gigantic intersection of just shit. And everybody wants to get there to party. So they're upset. And so our Waymo, they're legit. This Waymo like peels out in front of this guy who's in a black suburban, like dropping some people off, like stops. And so, like, there's a car like this, they're right in front of each other and it pulled the Waymo pulls in between the two cars while they're stopped, whips around, bats into a parking spot to do like a three point turn and then like go out. And this dude was so mad because then the Waymo just kept like being aggressive, like inching its way back out into traffic. And the guy's like flipping me off. And so the two, my two buddies are in the back seat and so I'm in the front seat.

Dan Austin: [24:29] Right? And there's nobody sitting next to me. And this guy's cussing, like flipping me off. Like he was mad. And I'm like, now right here, like looking, he's like looking right at me, like you piece of shit. Like yell. I'm like, dude, I'm not controlling this car at all, dude. The guy was so, so violently mad at me, dude. And I was just like, goddamn it, dude. And I'm just stuck in this car. I couldn't do anything.

Dylan Koch: [24:49] They do seem aggressive. They, like, they have an aggressive, like, approach when they drive.

Dan Austin: [24:53] Oh, yeah, dude. Well,

Mike DeHaan: [24:55] it was probably in in like the in the mode at that point where like it didn't know what to do. So really what took it over was a Filipino driver overseas. Because that that is what happens. You know that. Right?

Dan Austin: [25:06] They just push themselves through. Right?

Dylan Koch: [25:07] I did not know that. No. I did not.

Dan Austin: [25:09] Oh, they do have supervision. You're absolutely right. They have I see what

Mike DeHaan: [25:12] you're saying. Yeah. But actually, so if those cars get into a situation where it's like kind of out of the ordinary, a VA, they're all in The Philippines, like connects into the car and they actually drive it remotely.

Dylan Koch: [25:23] I had no idea.

Mike DeHaan: [25:24] Yeah. Yeah. So they're

Dan Austin: [25:25] still supervised. So every I mean, I don't know how many Filipinos per car, or how many cars per Filipino, but they are the at least the Waymo's are still supervised.

Mike DeHaan: [25:32] Filipinos per car. Yeah. Most inefficient thing ever. Yeah. One steers left and one steers right. One does the gas.

Dan Austin: [25:39] One hits each camera. Yeah. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [25:41] They're all sitting there.

Dylan Koch: [25:42] Yeah. Yes.

Dan Austin: [25:44] Yeah. But yeah, I knew that they were supervised and they actually can see like inside the cab as well to make sure like you're not doing anything weird.

Dylan Koch: [25:51] Yeah. No illicit activities inside the Weimos?

Dan Austin: [25:54] They're cool though. They're fun to they're fun to ride around. Definitely lets you know where where the future as we thought of it is kind of here.

Mike DeHaan: [26:00] Yeah. It's a lot of that stuff. I mean

Dan Austin: [26:02] That's what I think about with this Tesla robot. So like okay. So hypothetically, if this Tesla robot comes out and it's $25, are you in? Like, it works well.

Mike DeHaan: [26:12] Well, I'm gonna be first.

Dylan Koch: [26:13] I'm not gonna be first. I'm gonna let other people do it Yeah. Yeah.

Dan Austin: [26:16] Right. Okay. Yeah. And yes, don't be for like, it can mow your lawn. It can wash your windows. It can clean your house. It can maybe do, I don't know, other things. Like maybe there's like a list of things where you're like, okay, that's my breakeven point. I would totally, I would totally get that.

Mike DeHaan: [26:29] It'll take a long time before it's a consumer product. Right? Like Right.

Dan Austin: [26:33] For sure.

Mike DeHaan: [26:33] Be, you know, in factories for different tasks, those sort of things. But I mean, there's so many like service based stuff, like tasks they could do. You know, if you look at, like, general gardens, like you said, or, like, we had someone here that, like, cleaned my windows, you know, the other day. That's always something a robot could do. Yeah. Right? And probably do a better job too, and it'd be significantly faster.

Dan Austin: [26:52] Yeah. You'd hope they do a better job.

Mike DeHaan: [26:53] You'd think

Dan Austin: [26:53] so. I mean, if they fall off the ladder, that's on them.

Mike DeHaan: [26:56] Yeah. And I don't care.

Dan Austin: [26:57] It's a robot. Yeah. Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [26:59] When they first started teasing those, they had like a picture of all the different ones you could get. There's basically like four different colors. And on on Reddit, when I saw it, the most uploaded comment was, so I can't decide if it's better or worse that I want the black one.

Dan Austin: [27:15] So they have color options. Yeah. They do. Of course. I mean, I'd get the black one.

Mike DeHaan: [27:20] Is that better or worse? You know? How do you view that?

Dylan Koch: [27:22] Mike, can you explain the joke to me? I don't I don't get it.

Dan Austin: [27:27] Yeah. I don't know.

Dylan Koch: [27:28] What else is happening in the world now? None anything? Nothing in the headlines?

Mike DeHaan: [27:33] No. Not really. We're just invading Iran. Dan's getting ready to to go suit up over there, getting itchy.

Dan Austin: [27:40] I've already fought my rich white politicians where I don't need another one. Everyone needs a rebound. Need like a

Dylan Koch: [27:46] your group chat of all your green beret friends, Dan?

Dan Austin: [27:49] Or are

Dylan Koch: [27:49] you just like, oh, let's go back?

Dan Austin: [27:50] No. Actually, it's it's actually like, honestly, you're really quiet.

Dylan Koch: [27:55] Oh, Like

Dan Austin: [27:56] nobody's saying anything to each other.

Mike DeHaan: [27:58] That's that's probably that's problematic.

Dan Austin: [28:00] Some of our friends are still in. Right? And some of them were definitely not for the war. Yeah. I don't know.

Dylan Koch: [28:06] Don't I know many people who are, if I'm being honest.

Dan Austin: [28:09] I don't know anywhere that is.

Mike DeHaan: [28:10] Do you think we're going to have ground troops there?

Dan Austin: [28:13] I think it's inevitable.

Mike DeHaan: [28:14] I think so.

Dan Austin: [28:14] Which is so terrible to say. Like, here's my opinion on this, and I am 100% against this. I always will like leave a caveat in this stuff like this is I'm sure there's stuff we don't know from a from a security risk. But I just can't still justify that. Right? Going into another country doing this thing. The problem is you go into this country, right? You kill the dude that you're gonna kill, right?

Dylan Koch: [28:36] Which we did already, by the way.

Mike DeHaan: [28:37] Which we already

Dan Austin: [28:38] did. Yeah. And then the next guy, I think we killed him too. So you take the guy out of power. This is not a regime change war is what they've said, right? So now you have a not a regime change war, but you are trying to kill everybody in the regime, and you want to do it just by bombing stuff. Right? So, okay. So if you left, say now, you've really just stirred up the hornet's nest and, and all your allies are getting bombed in the area and really screwed things up. So you gotta kind of go a little bit deeper to make sure like, they're like, they aren't messing around. But then you start involving civilians and hurting civilians and hurting infrastructure that is vitally necessary to their production in their life, right? Their oil fields, their refineries, their schools, whatever you bomb, even their government buildings, right? Like shit gets blown up. So now you're kind of like, well, we did blow some shit up, so should we kind of like help them out and rebuild it? So now you're back into the rebuilding phase, you gotta put people there to help do that. Like, that's like they go too far, but you haven't gone far enough. And and if I was to like sum it up, I would say they haven't gone too far, but then they're gonna have to go too far. And then you're then it's just this whole ground invasion and just dumb shit. They probably already have people on the ground, which don't know it.

Dylan Koch: [29:43] Someone on Polymarket had, like, if we're gonna be invaded or so by the end the day, and there's, like, these new new wallets or whatever. And all of them made like 75,000 to $150,000 bets are gonna profit x amount of dollars. And eventually, this morning, said, f this. If they have insider trading, I'm gonna do it too. So I made a Polymarket account, then I realized that you can't do it in The United States. Oh, at least I could. Yeah. So I guess probably do the the coal sheet or whatever.

Dan Austin: [30:09] Well, you can if you're a politician because you guys saw the the oil future trading right before the like Trump's tweets and stuff like that. You know, tell me that's not insider trading.

Dylan Koch: [30:17] I guess that the cabinet of the whole Trump crew with Bissett and them are swapping contracts. Like, they know if they're gonna like I don't know how to best explain this, but they there are futures contracts in oil And because they know if they're gonna release from the reserve or not, they basically were like rigging the market so they could make money even if the SBR was going down. It was kind of like a bizarre thing.

Dan Austin: [30:38] Like the individual cabinet members or the US government?

Dylan Koch: [30:41] No. Like the US government. This was like said that came out.

Dan Austin: [30:44] The US government was trying to profit off of off of it to make some extra margin. Okay.

Dylan Koch: [30:48] Correct.

Dan Austin: [30:49] I hate that less.

Dylan Koch: [30:51] Yeah. Other than individual people with insider information. Right? I mean, other than

Dan Austin: [30:54] it, like, if it was like, hey, we're gonna make some money for the American people, like, let's fuck some shit.

Mike DeHaan: [30:59] It's not for the American people though, dude.

Dylan Koch: [31:01] It just gets refunded into the war. Right? Like, that's the problem.

Mike DeHaan: [31:04] It's going to the golden ballroom and all their other bullshit.

Dan Austin: [31:07] So if you really look at this, so this is like an like, really fascinating. And I I've only dug like an inch deep into this whole topic and idea. So if you look at the Iraq and Afghanistan wars that we got into after nine eleven, which I think is arguably was a lot of money and a waste of money. Right? But I don't know what the total number is, but I've heard like the number $10,000,000,000,000. Right? So the US government was not going to be able to tax the American people $10,000,000,000,000. Right? If they're like, we're gonna increase taxes and take $10,000,000,000,000 from the American public people, right. Like that's a lot of money. So they wanted to go to war and they wanted to ingratiate themselves and do all this stuff that the politicians do and and people of these defense companies do and these lobbyists do. This is how they make money. Right? War I've seen wealth, so much wealth being built through war into a concentrated amount of people. So they basically, 10,000,000,000,000 was put into the pockets of all these people because they They printed it.

Dylan Koch: [32:03] They printed it.

Dan Austin: [32:04] Yeah. They paid for the war. Right? So my point, because you cut me off, Dylan, you asshole, is that they couldn't tax the American people. So what did they do? They sold debt to, in our case, what they would call our enemies, these the government, you know, that sold it to China and all these other people around the world, and then they printed what they couldn't sell.

Dylan Koch: [32:21] Yeah. A 100%. I mean, that that's that's pretty well known.

Dan Austin: [32:24] And then you saw all of this money in the value we saw skyrocketing, which is, you know, really took a, like in a massive acceleration during COVID because they printed even more money because they didn't have any money because they spent it all in this war. It just accelerated the values, everything. So even in our, really, in our adult lifetime, all of this, like, inflation and all the growth that we see is just fake. It's not it didn't really happen. It didn't really exist. They just created it by spending $10,000,000,000,000 on a war that never ended and never came to fruition.

Dylan Koch: [32:54] The compound annual growth rate of the m two money supply averages about 7% over a hundred years. The S and P 500 also averages around 7% over the past hundred years.

Dan Austin: [33:03] Yeah. That's the same exact argument. Right? It's like the S and P 500, if you're investing only in S and P 500, you're just saving money

Dylan Koch: [33:09] Exactly.

Dan Austin: [33:09] To keep up with inflation.

Dylan Koch: [33:11] Which I mean, is the the basement trade. And there's a researcher who I love. Her name is Lynn Olden. She has some free research articles and a premium one, which I do pay for. But this stuff goes in the short term and long term debt cycles. And typically, they start at like the individual level, then they go up to the corporate level. Then they go to corporate level, they go to the sovereign level. And then once they go to the sovereign level, there's no one else to take it. And that is the currency the basement trade. And that's the stuff that people like Ray Dalio have been talking about for the past ten to fifteen years. So, I mean, it's crazy because think about World War II, where they actually had war bonds, where they got people to buy bonds to help pay for the war. Like, if that it's just not gonna fly today in today's world.

Mike DeHaan: [33:51] No. Because we all we all pay taxes, you know, like the tax like, people already feel so overtaxed on everything. They're not gonna give more money to the government willingly.

Dylan Koch: [33:59] Yeah. Especially for a war that they don't agree with. Right?

Dan Austin: [34:02] Like Right. Yeah. World War two is different. Right? There was like, oh my gosh. You know? And people actually stood up and converted factories, and people went to work to really fight the war. But that was a a little bit more of a dire situation. I think the Jews were involved in that war too somehow.

Dylan Koch: [34:17] Well, World War two was when Germany and Hitler started in '19 yeah. Know your history, but yeah, you're not wrong.

Dan Austin: [34:23] Well, do you know why Hitler went after the Jews? Oh, jeez. We need a

Mike DeHaan: [34:27] customer out of the show.

Dan Austin: [34:28] This is a conspiracy.

Mike DeHaan: [34:29] Have you

Dan Austin: [34:29] heard this conspiracy? I don't know much about it.

Dylan Koch: [34:31] I'm pretty down

Mike DeHaan: [34:32] Has to do

Dan Austin: [34:32] with the Rothschild, the Rothschild family.

Dylan Koch: [34:34] Yeah. I'm pretty I'm pretty down those conspiracy theory roles, so probably.

Dan Austin: [34:38] Yeah. You probably heard this one then. Okay. Mike said, you gotta cut it.

Dylan Koch: [34:41] I know. Anyway anyway, so like that straight I don't pronounce it right. Hormoz? Like, that straight is still close.

Dan Austin: [34:47] Straight to Hormoz? Hormoz?

Dylan Koch: [34:49] Yeah. It's so close. And it obviously, that affects a lot of oil. Oil affects pretty much everything. And then I've heard that over a $100 a barrel, we're gonna see prices on most retail products go up. And I think something that I heard in a later podcast that's underreported is, like, 33% of the world's fertilizer also goes through that same street.

Dan Austin: [35:08] Really?

Dylan Koch: [35:09] And and they can't go through right now either. So if farmers don't have fertilizer for crops, that's gonna even cause more problems going down, you know, the longer that this stays closed.

Dan Austin: [35:18] What fertilizer are we talking about? What do you fertilize with?

Dylan Koch: [35:20] I think like people in the Midwest who grow like corn and and beans and that kind of stuff.

Dan Austin: [35:25] Well, I knew that, but like, what is the fertilizer?

Dylan Koch: [35:27] I don't know if that's an organic substance.

Dan Austin: [35:29] Because I know a lot of it's like manure or human feces and all that sort of stuff that they like grind up and spread out in there. But is there like, I guess the chem the chemical type of fertilizer maybe?

Dylan Koch: [35:37] Yeah. I'm not sure. But natural resources?

Dan Austin: [35:39] I'm just curious of where it comes from, if it's like in The Middle East or something like that.

Dylan Koch: [35:43] That goes through the street. Yeah, it's a question.

Mike DeHaan: [35:44] Yeah, I

Dan Austin: [35:45] don't know.

Mike DeHaan: [35:45] Yeah, those are things that I know very little about. Just my curiosity. Yeah. I did see a thing that said that it was a 46% of farms. It's the highest it's ever been. We're basically on the verge of declaring bankruptcy or had declared bankruptcy in the last twelve months. And a big part of it was a, because of us having our trade issues with China. So they don't really have an outlet for a lot of the stuff that they grow that

Dan Austin: [36:09] Yeah.

Mike DeHaan: [36:09] You know, The US doesn't consume, things like soybeans, stuff like that, that we don't really consume a lot of. And then also too because of the fertilizer issue.

Dan Austin: [36:16] Yeah. You wonder what's crazy about that is there's so much I think that's a very complex topic, but I just found this out that like a lot of like the Midwest states that like basically produce like some of the most like rich like land, you could say, like the most producing land, they consume like 7% of what they grow, and then they import like 97% of all their other 93% of their food. Like what? That's crazy.

Dylan Koch: [36:39] That is crazy.

Dan Austin: [36:40] They sell it to other parts of the world. They export it out of the Midwest to China and all these other places, and then they import shitty processed food.

Mike DeHaan: [36:47] I mean, that's like that's like so many other things that happen in The United States though. So I guess like all the timber over here on the West Coast, a lot of it we sell to China. Yeah. They process it, and then we buy it back from them at a premium because it's cheaper than us processing it here.

Dan Austin: [36:59] It's wild though. It's just kinda it's just interesting stuff. Yeah. But you go down this this whole path on like the on the fertilizers and the weed killer that we use in America, which is outlawed in all of the other parts of the world. And you talk about people with like cancer and food allergies. That's a whole thing.

Dylan Koch: [37:13] Yeah. The organic stuff.

Dan Austin: [37:14] Yeah. It's wild. Like, literally, like, talk about people go always talk about going to Europe, they're like, oh, I could eat foods I could never eat in The US. And the thing that always fascinated me about people saying they go to Italy and eat like grains there and don't feel sick. Italy, it's like a large it's the majority of their wheat comes from The US.

Dylan Koch: [37:32] It's not the source, it's the processing of the source.

Dan Austin: [37:34] It's the processing, but also like what's getting put on that, that allows it to be shipped to Europe, that if you had it in The US, like, they only ship that to Europe, but whatever's being eaten and consumed in The US has some other chemicals on it that's really bad for you. It's a interesting argument.

Dylan Koch: [37:49] Well, I know it's affected interest rates a lot for you guys too. I'm sure you get a lot of pleasant borrowers.

Mike DeHaan: [37:55] Yeah. I know. It's made business super fun. It's like I'm sure it does for everybody else. We had some of the interest rate changes that we've had in the lending business over the last month have been crazy. Like last week, one of our investors had 14 rate increases.

Dylan Koch: [38:07] Oh, man.

Mike DeHaan: [38:08] I think it was like Monday or Tuesday. We had three in the same day. And on average, just for context, we typically will get one or two a month. We had 14 in a week.

Dylan Koch: [38:16] Can they rate lock like you can do on a traditional loan?

Mike DeHaan: [38:19] Yeah. But like, so there would be stuff that we sold in the morning. And then by the time it got to the end of the day, that rate no longer was honorable.

Dylan Koch: [38:26] Okay. Yeah. You

Mike DeHaan: [38:27] know? It was happening so fast.

Dan Austin: [38:29] Even RTL rates have gone up, which typically don't usually go. Those are because they're not as sensitive as like the thirty year stuff.

Dylan Koch: [38:35] Dan, explain what explain to you what RTL. Most people don't know what that means.

Dan Austin: [38:39] Oh, sorry. Yeah. The fix and flip loans, like the short term debt that has gone up. What did it go up like? Not a ton, but like eighth, half a point, depending on where you're at.

Mike DeHaan: [38:47] Yeah. Basically, the floor is like half point higher. And they're starting to get stricter on a lot of different things all across the board with the private lending space. Like where we've really faced a lot of pushback right now, there's been such a massive increase in fraud regarding people moving into properties that they got DSCR loans on. So we have to jump through all these hoops now to basically verify that people are getting DSCR loans like have a primary residence that

Dan Austin: [39:13] they live in. Like more proof than you would have to give for a conventional loan. Totally. You know what I mean?

Mike DeHaan: [39:19] Yeah. That's like the number one thing they care about right now. You know, because like the the rates are on par with what you can get on a Fannie Freddie loan, but the qualification is technically easier.

Dan Austin: [39:27] It's cause they're like, you know, we're going be foreclosing on these bastards. We don't want a 2,008 all over. I know. It's the same money as 2008. It's just in a different type of MBS.

Dylan Koch: [39:36] I bet the dollar amount's higher just from the growth over the past fifteen, twenty years.

Mike DeHaan: [39:40] But Oh, yeah. Significantly higher.

Dan Austin: [39:42] Oh, it's gotta be. Oh, yeah. For sure. Because property values have gone up.

Dylan Koch: [39:45] Yeah. Exactly. I

Mike DeHaan: [39:46] don't know. Cost of everything's tricky. Going to war. I'll poison the people. You know? And then I was talking to one of our mutual friends last night, Dan, and I was like and he's he's like, I don't know really what we're supposed to do. And I was like, you know what? Let's just go play pickleball tomorrow, I guess. That's really all that's really all you can do.

Dan Austin: [40:03] The thing that I've always believed in because like I've had to I've had to like train myself because my natural inclination would be to be like worried about that stuff. But at the end of the day, you should only really worry about what you can control. And we can't control what's going on in the war on Iran. We can't control- you can what if the shit out of everything. But if you are a flipper, like you should probably still flip some houses. You probably shouldn't just stop unless your business just sucks, like you're not doing anything. Right? But like, if you're like debating on doing a flip and you're only accounting for the fact that maybe something crazy could happen, like a white swan event, like a nuclear bomb, or the economy just takes a really deep dive. Well, what are you gonna do then? Like not flip the houses when the economy is bad too? And so like, you've gotta obviously make risk weighted decisions, but you have to keep doing things like going and playing pickleball. Yeah. You can't make it have you stopped doing business.

Mike DeHaan: [40:56] Yeah. Just gotta live your life at the end of it, you know? And I think it's important for people to get themselves in like a defensive position where they have the ability to make changes if they need to. You know, whether that means like a financial defensible position where you have a cash available or, you know, being able to be mobile. Right? So that you feel like you need to, like, leave your area, like, you can do that. Right. You know, or you have like a general idea about how you're gonna do that. But if you're going too much further than that I don't know. If you look at most of the crises that have happened over the last, like, while, like long time, even like recent stuff in like 2020. 2020, there's been a lot of different atrocities that have happened around the world. The people that, like, are determined to, like, stay there and, like, fight it out are the ones who get cooked. Mhmm. You know? They're the ones who just they completely get decimated because they try to, you know, figure it out. The people that have the ability to leave are the ones who survive at the end of it. You know? And you can go as far back to World War two where, you know, the Jews during the Holocaust that were able to, like, pay their way out Yeah. They survived. People that stayed there and tried to shelter in place did not.

Mike DeHaan: [41:59] You know? It's even more recent. You look at, like Syria, right, or like Yemen, or like a lot of the South Sudan, a lot of the major issues that we've had recently, people that were able to escape, they did just fine. But they were in a position where were able to do that. But which is tricky.

Dan Austin: [42:12] Yeah. I'm gonna be shooting all the fleers and taking their stuff so that I could go flee.

Mike DeHaan: [42:16] Of course.

Dan Austin: [42:18] I'm gonna stay on the Canadian border, rob people.

Mike DeHaan: [42:20] That is a good thing about where we live, honestly, is like we are, like, we're kind of in a part of the country that nobody gives a shit about, and we are close to a border if we did need to leave.

Dan Austin: [42:29] Yeah. We can pop smoke pretty quickly. Oh, yeah. But that also we live with people that think that way. So you get right on the edge of town, there's some

Dylan Koch: [42:36] strange people. Oh, for sure.

Dan Austin: [42:38] There's a lot of them.

Mike DeHaan: [42:39] Cool. Anyways. Alright, guys. Anything else to wrap up?

Dylan Koch: [42:42] I'm good.

Dan Austin: [42:43] No. I'm just gonna go get my bug out bag ready now that you got me pumped up and ready to run.

Mike DeHaan: [42:48] Yeah. I mean, you know, make sure you got everything in there. Make sure that your your rations aren't expired.

Dan Austin: [42:53] Golly. I don't have any rations. Well, you got one to do.

Mike DeHaan: [42:56] Alright. Thanks for listening, everybody. You guys have a great rest your week. We'll talk to you guys next time.

Dylan Koch: [43:00] See you.

Mike DeHaan: [43:01] This episode is sponsored by Sir Lenzelot LLC, also known as SLA Capital, which, if you didn't know, is Dan and I's private lending company. So, yes, we are sponsoring our own show, but what you're do about it? It is our private lending company that offers hard money and DSCR loans to real estate investors of all types. So you can be a new investor, an experienced investor. You can be buying flips. You can be buying rentals, whatever. We can do everything. And not only that, but the rates that we offer are just as competitive, if not cheaper, than pretty much every other company out there. So whatever big company you've been working with, bring us their term sheets, I guarantee that we can probably beat it. We have the same connections they do. We just don't have all the overhead and middlemen. So if you wanna come and check us out, go to slacapital.com/keys, and I will know that you came from the show. And by seeing that you came from here, when you get the closing, you will save $500 on your first loan with us. So slacapital.com/keys, we would love to fund your next deal. Thanks for listening, everyone. If you want more from us, you can shoot us a follow on Instagram. I am at Mike underscore invest. Dan is at investor man. Dan and Dylan is at Dylan underscore does underscore Deals. Choose to follow and send us a DM to let us know what you think of the show.

Transcript generated automatically and may contain errors.

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