John Bianchi
John Bianchi has been a guest on Collecting Keys, the real estate investing podcast hosted by Mike DeHaan, Dan Austin and Dylan Koch.
Is AirBNB What Its Cracked Up To Be? Check the Data with John Bianchi
Mike DeHaan interviews John Bianchi, known as 'The Airbnb Data Guy,' about evaluating short-term rentals using AirDNA data instead of hype. John walks through his three-step order of operations — regulation, then data, then operations — explains why he warns people off rental arbitrage after building and selling 15 Chicago units, and describes how Airbnb's recent search changes are hurting average properties while the standout homes hold steady. Mike pushes back throughout with his own skepticism about oversaturated markets, overpaying for lake and Smokies properties, and license caps.
Key takeaways
- Do it in order: check regulation first (a market with rules already in place is less likely to change on you), then study the data to prove a property will cash flow, then worry about operations.
- Rental arbitrage carries the liability of a lease with no asset, plus furniture that depreciates fast. John did six or seven arbitrage deals, then moved to management at a 20% cut — but admits arbitrage is often the only way to get the experience a management client will trust, so start with the smallest unit you can find.
- Never sublease or run an Airbnb without landlord approval. John's first Airbnb got an eviction letter slid under the door within a month and had to be converted to a corporate rental.
- COVID took John's Chicago arbitrage revenue from about $35,000/month to zero overnight; he re-leased the units as long-term rentals within a month and sold the business in April 2020 for roughly one year's cash flow (about $20K per property) plus discounted furniture.