Jon Brooks
Jon Brooks has been a guest on Collecting Keys, the real estate investing podcast hosted by Mike DeHaan, Dan Austin and Dylan Koch.
Florida's Real Estate Market is Crashing - Which Market is Next?
Jacksonville brokerage owner Jon Brooks breaks down why Florida's housing market has deteriorated so quickly — builder oversupply, the exit of hedge fund and second-home buyers, and rising inventory — and compares it with Ohio and Washington, which are still holding up. The group discusses short sales and foreclosures as the next agent and investor opportunity, why Brooks sold his rental portfolio to become a private lender, and how to think about deploying cash when both stocks and real estate look overpriced.
Key takeaways
- Florida's downturn came from a demand and supply shock at once: builders overbuilt for COVID-era migration while investors and second-home buyers, once ~35% of purchases, largely pulled out after the Fed began raising rates in March 2022. Jacksonville pending sales were down 34% year over year in April.
- Jacksonville inventory is at 6.4 months and climbing roughly 1,000 homes net per month, with thousands of expired listings expected to return — Brooks thinks a correction with more short sales and foreclosures is coming.
- Brooks says this is the worst time in history to buy in Florida if you plan to sell in two to three years; a 10-plus year hold is a different calculation. He sold 17 single-family rentals and his apartments after rates started rising and now private lends at 12–15%.
- Short sales are slow but stackable: the seller must document distress, the bank orders a BPO or appraisal, and asset managers may only review packages once a quarter — deals can take 6, 12 or 18 months, and buyers often fall out.